Page 449 - Arabia the Gulf and the West

446 Arabia, the Gulf and the West

Six months previously, on 20 December 1977, another report had appeared
in The Times which demonstrated even more forcibly the compulsive fascina­
tion exerted by higher oil prices over the minds of Western newspapermen. A
German correspondent interviewed Shaikh Yamani during an OPEC meeting

at Caracas, and the dialogue went as follows:

Q: Can you roughly tell us by how much the oil price will be increased in Caracas and
what the Western world can expect?
A: There will be no increase.
Q- Do you believe that an increase in oil prices ranging to 15 per cent (which is the

average inflation rate in the Western countries) could be borne by the oil consumer
countries?
A: There will be no increase.

Q: Does the slackness of the world economy actually permit an increase in oil prices,
perhaps from January 1, 1978 .. .?

The pathetic litany continued until Yamani — either goaded by the correspon­
dent’s persistence or perhaps out of pity for the poor fellow’s yearning to feel
the lash across his back - replied at last to his questioner’s desperate plea of
‘Could you attempt to guess at which level the price will be in 1980 and 1990?’

with a grave and suitably Delphic pronouncement: ‘There will be an increase
in the oil prices in 1980 and a strong increase in 1990.’ Needless to say, Yamani
and his interlocutor were both off target: the increase came on 1 January 1979.

Ahmad Zaki al-Yamani and the country he serves are the principal focus of

Western hopes, fears and speculations about oil supplies and prices. The Saudi
oil minister’s comings and goings about the world are devoutly chronicled by
the Western press, his every utterance reverently recorded and sifted for

hidden significance as if he were the Pythian oracle. Yamani, in his turn, has
played the role assigned him with great verve, ceaselessly girdling the earth like
a fretful Puck, scattering golden promises of price reductions and unfettered
supplies, intermingled with dark allusions to possible embargoes and

restrictions - and simultaneous assurances that they are a thing of the past.

‘My conscience hath a thousand several tongues,
And every tongue brings in a several tale ....’

On a visit to Japan in January 1974 he startled the Japanese by offering them

the same all-encompassing agreement for the provision of oil and finance or
investment that he had offered the Americans in 1972. ‘Japan is nation numb
one that is in the position to have a continuous supply of crude oil rom
Arabia on a long-term basis.’ He astonished his hosts even further by proclaim

ing dramatically:
We sense our responsibilities, and therefore we want to reduce the• Pre“nt 7“^.’

although we believe it to be a fair and reasonable price. His Maiesty, King