Page 82 - North Atlantic and Nordic Defense

North European and North Atlantic Defense: The Challenges Return

In a piece published by Yoel Sano Head of Political Risk, BMI Research, the implications are projected as
follows:

Russia’s triumph over the most powerful military alliance in the world could prompt several Eastern European
countries in the EU to reach some sort of accommodation with Moscow.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would probably accept Moscow’s hegemony in Eurasia. A
victorious Kremlin could then press the US and EU for some sort of formal division of Europe into rival spheres of
influence.

Europe would be set for a multi-decade new Cold War, although this would not be global in scope, because
Europe’s economic importance has declined substantially since the 1980s. Also, there would be no ideological
dimension to the new struggle.
In Russia, the president would bask in the success of re-establishing control of the Baltic republics, and patriotic
fervour would surge, but the economy would be devastated by major Western sanctions. Given rising economic
pressures, the president could steer Russia towards formal authoritarianism.

Elsewhere, the unreliability of collective security treaties would encourage Japan and South Korea to bolster their
defences against China and North Korea respectively, probably by developing their own nuclear arsenals. Similar
trends would play out in the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia and several of its neighbours fear the consequences
of a nuclear Iran.

http://www.sldinfo.com/crafting-baltic-defense-a-key-role-for-allied-air-and-seapower/

THE RETURN OF ANTI-SUBMARINE WARFARE: THE CANADIAN CASE

NATO Allies and North Atlantic Maritime Threats

2017-09-30 By Robbin Laird

© 2017 FrontLine Defence (Vol 14, No 4)

The rebuilding of Russia’s Northern fleet and its defense bastion built around the Kola Peninsula creates a
direct challenge to the Norwegian area of interest. Clearly, the expanded reach of Russia into the Arctic also
affects the nature of the air and sea domains of strategic interest to all of the Arctic Council States.

Norway

In its Long Term Plan (issued on 17 June 2016), the Norwegian Ministry of Defence notes that “the most
significant change in the Norwegian security environment relates to Russia’s growing military capability and its
use of force. The military reform in Russia has resulted in a modernization of Russia’s conventional forces as
well as a strengthening of its nuclear capabilities.”

It goes on to mention Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the continued destabilization of Eastern
Ukraine. Both “constitute violations of international law, which have had a dramatic effect on European
security,” the document asserts. “Russia has repeatedly proven itself willing to use a wide range of measures,
including military force, to sustain its political dominance and influence.”

Second Line of Defense

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