Page 16 - An Illusion of Complicity: Terrorism and the Illegal Ivory Trade in East Africa

Tom Maguire and Cathy Haenlein 3

This report offers a new, objective and nuanced analysis to inform policy regarding these issues.
In doing so, it seeks to frame debate on the Al-Shabaab–ivory nexus in a more context-sensitive
manner than highly emotive public discussion. At the heart of the report is the question of
whether – and how – Al-Shabaab has been involved in the ivory trade. Based on its findings,
it assesses the consequences for, firstly, efforts to starve Al-Shabaab of funding and, secondly,
attempts to stem the region’s substantial flows of illegal ivory.

Methodology

A multi-method research approach was adopted, using predominantly, but not exclusively, open
sources. First, an extensive Internet survey was conducted to assess the main components of
the prevailing Al-Shabaab–ivory narrative and the evidence underpinning it. Through a range
of search engines, English-language articles published by both Western and East African media
containing the terms ‘Al-Shabaab’, ‘terrorist’, ‘poaching’ and ‘ivory’ were surveyed and analysed.
The articles were then categorised according to the claimed strength of the connection, the
evidence they presented or cited, variations in central narratives and statistics, and publication
dates. A similar survey and analysis were conducted for publications and public statements by
NGOs, research institutes and policy-makers. Following this, over sixty interviews were conducted
with experts on both the IWT and Al-Shabaab from the US, UK and East African academic, policy,
practitioner and research communities. Fieldwork in Nairobi and northern Kenya allowed the
authors to access a range of views on the ground, including those of actors on the front lines of
the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem – one of Kenya’s two major source areas and the one closest to
the Somali border. In all locations, as many angles as possible were sought to place the issue in
perspective, especially from counter-terrorism experts whose voices have been largely absent
from the public debate. The data acquired was then combined with extensive desk research
using primary and secondary sources. From this, contextual and logic-based analysis of the most
likely scenarios was applied, taking account of areas where little further evidence is available
without an extensively resourced investigation.

Structure

The report is divided into four main chapters. Chapter I examines the Al-Shabaab–ivory narrative,
and the main variants of it that have emerged. Chapter II uses the authors’ research to challenge
the main tenets of the arguments commonly put forth. The subsequent chapters consider the
implications of the findings for the fight against Al-Shabaab on the one hand, and efforts to curb
the IWT on the other. Chapter III asks the question, If Al-Shabaab is not earning substantially
from ivory, where the focus on ongoing measures to stem its financing should lie? Chapter IV
considers the main actors known to drive the illegal ivory trade and the measures required
to counter them. The report concludes with a series of recommendations to strengthen the
formulation of policy in both areas.