Page 29 - An Illusion of Complicity: Terrorism and the Illegal Ivory Trade in East Africa

16 An Illusion of Complicity

total, Tanzania’s elephant population fell from around 110,000 in 2009 to 43,500 in 2014 – a 60
per cent drop in five years.22 The physical distance separating Al-Shabaab’s core base from these
ecosystems would appear to rule out engagement in these hotspots to any meaningful extent.

This is not to deny that Somalis – and perhaps even some Al-Shabaab sympathisers – have played
some front-line role in the region’s current poaching crisis. Yet narrowly focusing on Somali
involvement for hints of – currently spurious – large-scale links to Al-Shabaab distracts from
larger, more disturbing poaching trends in East Africa. This selective focus may also reflect the
entrenched ethnic politics underpinning Kenya’s security problems. The spillover of instability
from Somalia and its interplay with radicalisation in Kenya has seen the scapegoating of Somalis
and externalisation of threats by Kenyan politicians.23 This broader context must be borne in
mind when engaging with the Al-Shabaab-poaching narrative.

Al-Shabaab and Trafficking

A more indirect Al-Shabaab role in East Africa’s ivory trade is perhaps more likely than any
direct engagement in poaching given the group’s distance from major herds. Yet here again
evidence is severely limited, and what there is remains highly questionable. Nearly every expert
the authors spoke to, whether from a conservation or a security background, was sceptical
– if not completely dismissive – of the argument that the group engaged significantly in the
trade in this way.24

There are certainly reasons why Al-Shabaab might seek to tap into an ivory trade running through
Somalia.25 As Chapter III demonstrates, the group has exploited similar low-risk, high-reward

22. Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), ‘Vanishing Point: Criminality, Corruption and the
Devastation of Tanzania’s Elephants’, November 2014, p. 2; Paul Tyson, ‘Tanzania Pledges Action
on Elephant “Slaughterhouse” as Numbers Fall Again’, ITV News, 1 June 2015; Aislinn Laing,
‘Tanzania’s Elephant Catastrophe: “We Recalculated About 1,000 Times Because We Didn’t Believe
What We Were Seeing”’, Daily Telegraph, 19 July 2015.

23. Ally Jamah, ‘Report: Al-Shabaab Targets Historical Grievances to Advance Agenda in Kenya’,
Standard, 27 September 2014; ICG, ‘Kenyan Somali Islamist Radicalisation’, Policy Briefing: Africa
Briefing No. 85, 25 January 2012; Anneli Botha, ‘Assessing the Vulnerability of Kenyan Youths to
Radicalisation and Extremism’, Institute for Security Studies Paper 245, April 2013; ICG, ‘Kenya:
Al-Shabaab – Closer to Home’, passim; Anneli Botha, ‘Radicalisation in Kenya: Recruitment to Al-
Shabaab and the Mombasa Republican Council’, ISS Paper 265, September 2014; Human Rights
Watch, ‘Insult to Injury: The 2014 Lamu and Tana River Attacks and Kenya’s Abusive Response’,
June 2015, pp. 12–13, 33–46; authors’ interview with director of research institute, Nairobi, 28
January 2015.

24. Authors’ interview with director of private security firm, 29 January 2015; authors’
correspondence with Western diplomat 6, Nairobi, 17 March 2015; authors’ correspondence with
senior adviser at research institute, 1 April 2015; authors’ conversation with head of training,
private security firm, northern Kenya, 24 April 2015; authors’ interview with INTERPOL officers 1
and 2, Nairobi, 1 May 2015; authors’ interview with senior illegal wildlife trade (IWT) monitoring
official, 14 May 2015.

25. Authors’ interview with senior conservation NGO manager.