Page 21 - 一 根据所给图表，回答下列问题。

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B. Negative
C. Neutral

D. Not mentioned

Passage 2

Walking into a room to discover that the floor keeps slipping and sliding is a common
problem in MC Escher drawing, supervillain deathtraps and states of exceeding inebriation.
The predicament also seems to be spreading to the oil market of late.

World crude prices have paused following their collapse this month. US oil is holding
at $82 a barrel and Brent at $85. How tempting to look over the cliff edge and conclude that

the floor is not, in fact, too far down. One support may simply be that disruptions to supply
(which have been declining lately) may rise again because of political tensions.
Perhaps $80 or $70 is the lowest price at which capital remains willing to finance

expansion in US shale oilfields, the supplier of that market’s marginal barrels. Or the floor
may (also) be the lowest price at which OPEC producers balance public spending with

revenue.
Perhaps. But neither floor might remain where it is. Take break-even budget prices

first, Saudi Arabia has doubled government spending since 2008. Revenues have only risen
7 per cent in the same period, notes Bank of America. It certainly sounds like Riyadh cannot

push one button for October’s volatility-cutting prices to retain its market share-much
further without forcing itself into a budget deficit. But look outside the question of oil
revenue, and government assets of $450bn would be enough to cover eight years of deficits

if required, says Deutsche Bank.
And if sovereign financing has a subtler effect on oil markets than might be supposed,

so could shale technology and economics. Land grabs in the industry for acreage in recent
years took precedence over keeping costs in check. This could reverse, however, thereby

reducing break-even production costs. The higher rate at which output declines in shale
versus conventional wells over time might keep producers under pressure at the same time,

though. They will have to replace declines with new drilling, requiring capital. It is a brave

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