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62 Opinion
bne March 2021
Moscow is making it explicit that in the new era of “diplomacy is back” it has entirely given up on the possibility of cordial relations with the West as its starting position.
If the West wants to create a better work environment and do arms control deals, for example, which Russia wants, then the West will have to deal on Russia’s terms. There can be no dual policy of co-operation on arms on one hand, and sanctions because of things like the Navalny affair on the other.
This is a total rejection of the way business between Russia and the West has been done so far. What Moscow is saying now is: “Do your worst. We won’t be forced by you to change anything.”
The golden rule of Russian watching is if the Kremlin is faced with a choice between hurting its international reputation and a domestic policy goal, it will always choose the domestic policy option – in this case taking Navalny out of the game ahead of the elections.
Lavrov actually said this out loud at the joint press conference he held with Borrell. “Lack of normalcy in relations between Russia and EU, [the] two biggest Eurasian actors, is not
a healthy situation, benefits no one and is the main issue
to be addressed.”
The expulsion message is also aimed at the White House and is a rejection of the dual policy that newly installed US President Joe Biden has been hinting at. During his first call with Putin, Biden talked about arms control and Navalny. Lavrov is saying in very clear terms the Kremlin is prepared to talk about the first one but not the second.
And Russia has put its money where its mouth is. The rapidity of the passage of the new START III treaty and Biden’s clear call for new arms control deals with Russia – as bne IntelliNews has argued, a significant departure from the previous policy of pulling out of all the Cold War era security deals – was a signal that there is in fact common ground on which a new relationship can be built. Russia immediately followed up the START III deal by calling for the two sides to move on directly to re-making the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INS).
Putin feels he can now afford to thumb his nose at the West. With Russia’s huge $600bn cash pile, its deepening ties with China, its friendly relations with most of the G20 countries, its re-equipped military, its soft power success from supplying many of the emerging markets countries (who have been ignored by the developed nations) with the Sputnik V vaccine, Moscow is saying it needs nothing from the West and will do without unless the West rethinks its position on Russia.
In a week where Biden was laying out his foreign policy goals and intending to set the tone for his tenure, the Kremlin has just answered with its version of how things will work. Russia is demanding that the EU and US stop treating Russia like an emerging market in need of help and advice, and start treating it like a developed market and global power peer.
STOLYPIN: Vpered KoZa! Can Navalny mobilise the Coalition of the Fed-Up?
Mark Galeotti
Now the dust has settled on the latest day of protests, the blood staunched and the streets again empty
of riot-armoured ‘cosmonauts’, the contours of this current political struggle are becoming clearer, as is the real battlefield. It’s not Lubyanka Square, nor even the State Duma: it’s the Coalition of the Fed-Up.
Call it the Koalitsiya Zayobannykh or, less profanely, the www.bne.eu
Koalitsiya Zadolbannykh, but the KoZa is what in many ways defines Russian politics today, and the goal of everyone in this multi-player game of political Risk.
The protests, after all, were called for by Alexei Navalny and marshalled by his supporters, but although many chanted for his release and were prompted to come by outrage at his attempted murder, a great deal of the propellant force was provided rather