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The second, rapid, assumes a significant increase second, it can be combined with carbon, capture
in carbon prices and the introduction of other and storage (CCS) to produce near zero-carbon
WHAT: aggressive policies to lower emissions. energy. The rapid and net-zero scenarios see gas
BP now expects oil The third and final one, net zero, assumes combined with CCS accounting between 8 and
demand to peak in the these policies are introduced but also supported 10% of primary energy in three decades’ time.
early 2020s, if it has not by significant shifts in societal and consumer
done so already. behaviour and preferences. This will result in Clean tech
carbon emissions dropping more than 95% by Unsurprisingly, BP sees renewables on the fast-
WHY: 2050, in line with efforts to limit global temper- est-growing trajectory, led by rising wind and
Just a year ago, the UK ature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius. solar capacity. The share of renewables in final
major was expecting to energy consumption is seen expanding from a
reach this milestone in Oil and gas little over 20% in 2018 to 34% in the business-as-
the 2030s, but the pan- Even in the business-as-usual case, BP expects usual case, 45% in the rapid case and over 50% in
demic and an accelerated
energy transition have oil demand to reach plateau in the early 2020s. the net zero case.
changed the picture. Under the two other scenarios consumption will Growth will be driven by falling costs, which
never again reach the pre-pandemic level of just are expected to be 30% and 65% lower for wind
WHAT NEXT: above 100mn barrels per day (bpd). and solar respectively by 2050 under the rapid
Gas will fare better, but The business-as-usual case sees oil demand scenario, and by 35% and 70% respectively in
renewables are in for reaching 10% below the current level in 2050, the net-zero scenario. Electrification will also
rapid growth. BP itself is whereas the rapid and net-zero scenarios pre- increase in all three scenarios, with the share of
targeting a 40% cut in oil dict much sharper declines of 55% and 80% electricity in the final energy mix rising from
and gas production over respectively. These declines will be driven by 20% in 2018 to 34% for business-as-usual, 45%
the next decade. increasing efficiency and the electrification of for rapid and over 50% for net zero.
road transport. Hydrogen and bioenergy are pitched as
Carbon prices will also play a key role. The another way of decarbonising energy. Hydrogen
business-as-usual case assumes they will reach will increase its share to 16% under the net zero
$65 per tonne in developed countries by 2050 and 7% under the rapid case, whereas bioenergy
and $35 per tonne in emerging economies. But will grow to 10% of primary energy in the net
the net-zero case sees them soaring to as high as zero case and 7% in the rapid one.
$250 and $175 per tonne respectively.
Oil use in transport will peak in the mid- Commitments
to-late 2020s in all three cases. Its share in the With new CEO Bernard Looney at the helm,
sector’s fuel mix will fall from 90% in 2018 to BP has embraced the energy transition, more so
around 80% by 2050 under the business-as- than any of the world’s other leading oil and gas
usual case, only 40% in the rapid one and just companies. This was demonstrated in BP’s net-
20% under net-zero assumptions. The outlook zero strategy unveiled last month.
for gas is markedly better, however, supported The strategy called for a 40% reduction in the
“by broad-based demand and the increasing company’s oil and gas production over the next
availability of global supplies,” BP said. decade, and a similar scaling back of its refining
Under the business-as-usual case, BP pre- operations. It also aims to bolster annual invest-
dicts it to surge by a third over the next three ments in clean energy tenfold by 2030.
decades, from 3.93 trillion cubic metres last “The world is on an unsustainable path: the
year, according to BP’s own estimates. Under scenarios show that achieving a rapid and sus-
the rapid scenario, demand will peak in the mid- tained fall in carbon emissions is likely to require
2030s but will still be around the same level in a series of policy measures, led by a significant
2050 as in 2018. But according to the net-zero increase in carbon prices,” BP concluded. “These
case, demand will peak as soon as the mid-2020s policies may need to be further reinforced by
and drop by a third by 2050. shifts in societal behaviours and preferences.”
Gas has two main roles in the energy tran- Delaying either policies or societal shifts will
sition, BP said. First, it can displace coal in only make the challenge greater and add to the
fast-growing, developing economies where economic cost and disruption, the company
renewables cannot be deployed fast enough; warned. ™

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 37 17•September•2020