Page 65 - RusRPTAug24

bne August 2024
Opinion 65
COMMENT
Armenia needs a green light from Brussels
to fulfil its European dream
Robert Ananyan in Yerevan
Under threat from Russia and Azerbaijan, Armenia is seeking new partners and guarantees in the West. European integration or even joining the European Union has become one of the top issues on Armenia's political agenda.
The anti-government rallies of pro-Russian opposition forces that started in the spring have failed. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan remains in power, during whose tenure cooperation with the US and the EU has intensified unprecedentedly, peaking at a April 5 meeting in Brussels.
Now, the "Platform of Democratic Forces" uniting four pro-Western parties, is pressuring Pashinyan’s government. They are demanding a referendum on EU membership, pointing to Ukraine and Moldova, which have already begun negotiations on membership.
Pashinyan has not dismissed these demands. Moreover, on October 17, 2023, he declared from the European Parliament's podium that "Armenia is ready to be as close to the EU as
the EU considers possible”. Theoretically, this should mean membership if the European Union deems it possible.
Recently, during the "Armenian Democracy Forum" held in Yerevan, Pashinyan was more candid, stating he wouldn’t have made such a statement if he thought Armenians did not support the idea. Indeed, according to a poll conducted a few months ago by the International Republican Institute, Russia's rating has plummeted, and the country, once considered an ally, is now seen as one of three states posing political and economic threats. Meanwhile, the US, France, and the EU
are perceived by Armenians as their leading security and economic partners. The West almost has no negative ratings.
Public opinion today is therefore favourable, and if Pashinyan calls for a referendum on EU membership, it will likely
result in a positive outcome. However, he wants assurances that Brussels will also welcome Armenians' pro-European aspirations. Armenia needs to be confident that it will receive EU candidate status, like neighbouring Georgia.
Ursula von der Leyen (right) has positive experience working with Armenian premier Nikol Pashinyan (left). / Armenian PM's office
Pashinyan insists that he cannot say how ready the European Union is for Armenia's membership. Thus, Armenia's leader is publicly asking the newly elected leadership of the Euro- pean Union and the European Parliament for an answer on whether they see Armenia in the EU. More specifically, is the EU ready to start negotiations with Armenia as it is doing with Ukraine and Moldova?
But the economic and geopolitical situation is difficult.
If these problems are not overcome, Yerevan cannot be deemed a realistic candidate for the EU.
EU intensifies its focus
After four years of negotiations, Armenia's third president, Serzh Sargsyan, refused to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in 2013 and decided to make Armenia part of
the Russia-led Customs Union, later called the EEU. In 2017, Armenia and the EU signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement, which differs from the Association Agreement only by the absence of the free trade component.
Since 2020, the European Union has noticeably intensified
its attention on the South Caucasus. Georgia has obtained candidate status for membership. Georgia's fate will be decided in the parliamentary elections in October.
Today, Yerevan and Brussels are trying to align Armenia's economic standards with European ones, opening the doors
of European markets for Armenian producers. In 2021, the EU offered Armenia a new economic and investment plan, a €2.6 billion support package. So far, €550 million of this amount has been spent and invested in the economy, mostly consisting of preferential loans supporting small and medium-sized businesses. The rest mainly concerns capital expenditures.
The EU has also assumed a security role by deploying an observer mission in Armenia on the border with Azerbaijan. The EU also wants Armenia to participate in the Black Sea transmission cable project, contributing to the European continent's energy security.
www.bne.eu