Page 66 - RusRPTAug24

66 Opinion
bne August 2024
This year, the partnership council agreed to start work on
a new EU-Armenia partnership agenda. A document on
high political commitment has been prepared, which should record the high level of political relations between Armenia and the European Union and agree on more concrete programmes. This is a higher-status document than the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. Armenia should complete the implementation of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by 2027. Currently, the agreement is 80% implemented.
Thus, in two to three years, Armenia and the EU should summarize the implementation of the agreement and commit to raising relations to a new level. Theoretically, this could mean granting Armenia candidate status for EU membership.
Ursula von der Leyen, who is likely to continue presiding
over the European Commission, has positive experience working with Armenia. The main issue at the April 5 meeting in Brussels with the participation of Pashinyan, US Secretary
of State Antony Blinken, and von der Leyen, was increasing Armenia's resilience and economic resilience. The EU and
the US intend to help Armenia mitigate risks, diversify trade, expand technological infrastructure, and strengthen economic and institutional resilience.
For its part, the United States is committed to enhancing Armenia's food security and facilitating the flow of agricultural products across Armenia's borders. The US and Armenia have a preliminary agreement on constructing an American nuclear power plant. The US has also included Armenia in the Middle Corridor project connecting Central Asia to Europe and Nato countries, but its implementation is tied to the Armenian- Azerbaijani settlement.
The document agreed upon at the April 5 meeting lays serious groundwork for preparing Armenia's economy to shift toward Europe. Armenia has significant homework to cut off its economic dependence on Russia and move closer to the EU. This is a challenging task. Armenian businesses do not exert much effort to sell goods in the Russian market, as low-quality and cheap goods are easily sold. Armenian exports to Russia amounted to $7-8 billion in 2023. This is
a significant share of Armenia's economy but has also created an unhealthy dependence on the Russian economy.
On April 5, the US and the EU essentially committed to supporting Armenia in raising its economic standards
and entering European markets. Yerevan and Brussels are currently working to establish laboratories in Armenia to allow certified Armenian products to be exported to Europe without hindrance. Economic sector officials promise to ensure a positive outcome in trade route diversification in the next 1-2 years, as 3,000 Armenian companies have already modernized their equipment.
Economic risks
However, it will not be easy to sever Armenia's economic dependence on Russia, especially since Armenia's economy has doubled since 2020, nearing the $25 billion mark. A significant portion of this growth is due to exports to Russia. Armenia is one of the world's leaders in economic growth, but if Yerevan wants to join the European Union, it must take risks and leave the EEU. Armenia cannot be a member of two economic unions.
The Armenian government has indicated that it has calculated the economic and political sanctions Russia might impose in case of a sharp turn towards to the EU. To prevent Armenia's economy from collapsing due to Russian sanctions, the new EU leadership must be decisive in supporting Armenia. Only with economic guarantees will Pashinyan's government take the step of shaking up economic relations with Russia, knowing that it will create new security threats.
To reduce energy dependence, the American side is supporting the Armenian government in developing and implementing
a diversification and liberalization strategy.
High-ranking Armenian officials candidly admit off the record that politically, Yerevan will easily decide to join the EU. The
idea of EU membership is popular in Armenia. However, they want Armenia's economic resilience to increase and get closer to European standards. In the case of Russian sanctions, Armenian producers must be ready to transition to European markets.Today, Armenia's economy is preparing for such a scenario. However, the process's efficiency can only be assessed at a critical moment.
Pashinyan's government will likely take practical steps to apply for EU membership in 2026 during the parliamentary elections. It can be expected that the "Platform of Democratic Forces" and the "Civil Contract" will compete in 2026 to be the flagbearers of the European integration agenda.
The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the periodic military attacks planned by Azerbaijan and Russia have undermined the Pashinyan government's positions. He needs to give voters a new reason to vote for the Civil Contract party. He will likely announce before 2026 that if Armenians want to see concrete steps towards EU membership, they must choose his political team.
But if Brussels responds positively to Pashinyan’s raising of the issue in the coming months, the process of obtaining candidate status for the EU could accelerate.
The escalation of security threats against Armenia may also prompt Pashinyan to speed up the process. There is a prevailing view among Armenia's political elite that Azerbaijan will not dare to start a war against a country with EU candidate status.
Handling Russia
There is a perspective that Armenia is forced to maintain a balance or ambiguity between Russia and the West to
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