Page 6 - Caucasus Outlook 2023

1.0 Political Outlook

1.1 Politics – Georgia

Georgia missed a major opportunity this year after the European
Council declined to grant it candidate status during its June summit,
while Ukraine and Moldova were allowed to move ahead in their dream
of joining the bloc. The reason: EU officials’ concerns about “democratic
backsliding” in Georgia. Instead, Brussels handed authorities in Tbilisi a
wishlist of 12 recommendations, or certain political reforms that must be
undertaken before the country can become a candidate.
Recommendations include improvements to the judicial system, media
freedom, and anti-corruption reforms.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili tried to put a brave face on
Georgia's failure to secure EU candidate status from Brussels, saying
that the country would work towards being given the status. However,
intense domestic polarisation has gotten in the way of implementing the
12 recommendations, with both the opposition and ruling Georgian
Dream party accusing the other of trying to derail the country’s path to
EU membership.

The biggest challenge facing the country’s political establishment is
what the EU has dubbed “de-oligarchisation.” This is a not-so-subtle
reference to Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s wealthiest citizen and former
prime minister, who made his fortune in Russia after the collapse of the
Soviet Union. He claims to have retired from politics, having stepped
down as chairman of Georgian Dream in 2021. However, his associates
are still in power, and many regard Ivanishvili as the informal arbiter of
major political decision-making in the country to this day.

Parliamentarians from Georgian Dream drew up a de-oligarchisation
draft bill back in October, which has since passed through several
readings in the country’s legislature. But the bill has drawn sharp
criticism after lawmakers from the ruling party insisted that it will not
apply to Ivanishvili. MPs from Georgian Dream maintain that they are
simply implementing EU recommendations. The opposition views the
bill as an instrument for potential political repression. In either case, in
November, the Georgian Dream-led government capitulated to
demands from both the opposition and western leaders to send the
draft bill to the Venice Commission for a legal opinion.

Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has done little to change the
already cool relations between Tbilisi and Moscow. Although Georgia

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