Page 189 - RusRPTApr21

mean 3-4% upside to our EBITDA forecasts. We believe management's efforts to expand its portfolio create the potential for such upsides in future.
Our forecasts for 2021F are: TCE revenues at USD 1,218mn (-10% YoY), EBITDA at USD 764mn (-15% YoY), and net income at USD 169mn (-37% YoY), with SCF rates being 20% above the 4Q20 level.
We reiterate our 12-mo TP of RUB 125, ETR +45%, and Buy. The stock trades at 6.5x 2022F EV/EBITDA, 20% below its closest peer, MISC; SCF’s dynamic lags the recent surge in freight rates.
The dividend of USD 225mn (8% DY) is to be paid in June-July, we believe.
9.2.13 Other sector corporate news
Timber company Segezha, Sistema’s largest non-public portfolio company, reported its key IFRS financial results for 4Q20/FY20 yesterday, 16 March. Segezha’s FY20 revenue was up 17.9% y/y to RUB69bn, which is broadly in line with our estimate. In 4Q20, Segezha’s revenue rose 27.5% y/y to RUB18.8bn. Segezha’s FY20 EBITDA reached RUB17.5bn (+24.5% y/y), beating our estimate by 8%. In 4Q20, Segezha’s EBITDA reached RUB6.2bn (+60% y/y). Segezha generated RUB1.3bn in net loss attributable to shareholders for FY20 vs. RUB4.8bn in net income for FY19, which we think is mainly due to the negative effect of the revaluation of Segezha’s FX- denominated debt. According to Segezha, the company’s FY20 performance was driven by higher sales of sawn timber; increased prices for sawn timber and plywood; and the depreciation of the ruble against the euro and US dollar. Among the key headwinds were increased logistics costs and pressured prices for paper and paper packaging products. The company’s capex doubled y/y to RUB15.3bn in 2020. Investments in the company’s fleet of harvesters and haulers supported the increase in the share of Segezha’s own wood resources in the total amount logged from 69.5% in 2019 to 80.2% in 2020. The company kept its ND/EBITDA ratio flat y/y at 2.8x.
HeadHunter (HH) reported 4Q20 IFRS results on March 18. Revenues came in at R2,450mn, up 18.6% y/y (versus 7.7% y/y growth in 3Q20), which meant a return to the pre-Covid growth trend.
Revenues from key accounts in Russia were up 21.8% y/y (with ARPC up 13.2% y/y and the number of clients up 7.7%), while SME revenues were up 20.2% (flat ARPC, number of clients up 19.5% y/y). The fastest growth was from job posting revenues, which surged 31.7% y/y to R1,082mn, while bundled subscription revenues grew 12.4% to R653mn. Revenues from other value-added services increased by 4.4% to R223mn.
189 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com