Page 190 - RusRPTApr21

Adjusted EBITDA climbed 13.4% y/y to R1,160mn, giving an EBITDA margin of 47.2%, which was down 2.2 pp y/y due mainly to bonus payments in the quarter to compensate for a reduction in bonuses earlier in the year and the resumption of hiring within the company. This meant adjusted net income growth of 19.5% y/y to R852mn, for a 34.8% margin (flat y/y).
For 2021, HH expects its revenues to grow 37-42% (the Bloomberg consensus is 36%). The company did not provide official guidance for EBITDA but noted it does not expect the EBITDA margin to fall below 50% (the Bloomberg consensus is 41% growth and a 52% margin, up 2 pp).
The results beat the Interfax consensus by 2.8% on revenues and 2.3% on EBITDA. We see the company's revenue guidance as rather conservative and think that revenue growth this year will be supported by a planned price increase in April of at least 10%, the positive effect from the introduction of a pay-per-contact model last year and the accelerated shift online during the pandemic, especially in the SME segment. The BoD plans to discuss a potential dividend payment for 2020 in 2Q21. We expect the company to pay $0.5 per share based on the 2020 results, which would imply a 1.5% dividend yield.
MD Medical Group (MDMG) faced numerous tests in 2020, with the urgent switch to COVID-19, repurposed facilities and pressure on key services. We think that the company emerged stronger from these challenges.
2H20 revenues were up 34% y/y (vs. flattish 1H20) while EBITDA surged 50% y/y. The figures benefited from treating COVID-19 patients and the launch of the Lapino-2 hospital, while the strategy was reshaped to the Moscow region (62% of revenues) with more services but less emphasis on the regional roll-out. We note the strong 2021F outlook, with key P&L lines to grow some 20% as COVID-19 treatments are ongoing and Lapino-2 hospital is ramping rapidly, while IVFcycles (up 11% y/y) and outpatient visits (up 17% y/y) bounce from the low base in our model. The FY20 results, the outlook for 2021, plans to create a medical cluster at Lapino and its wider range of services implied upside risks and so we raised our forecasts a blended 35%. Our 12-month Target Price is now 33% higher, at $10, and the ETR of 49% is behind our Buy recommendation. 2021F EV/EBITDA of 5.8x and a 7% dividend yield point to the leading profile in our healthcare coverage.
2H20 IFRS results. Revenue growth picked up to 34% y/y, from the flattish performance in 1H20, as COVID-19 treatments intensified, Lapino-2 was launched, deliveries grew 9% y/y, and IVF and outpatient volumes stabilised. Increasing exposure to Moscow
190 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com