Page 191 - RusRPTApr21

supported profitability, which added 3pp y/y for an EBITDA margin of 33%. The company reported 1.85x y/y higher net income, at RUB2.9bn, while the dividend payout was 50% and implied a 3.6% yield, with a record day on 5 May. In 2020, NOCF surged 32% y/y to RUB6.5bn, while capex was flat y/y at RUB3.9bn. Net debt was 17% y/y lower at RUB2.9bn with net debt / EBITDA of 0.5x.
Forecast revision. In 2020, EBITDA and EPS came 14% and 24% above our model, with a record high performance. Given the comparison base, we see opportunities to increase revenues, EBITDA and net income some 20% in 2021F on the ongoing COVID-19 treatments, the further ramp-up of Lapino-2, and the growing exposure to higher prices and margins in the Moscow region. We see the latter as the prime growth pillar in the near term, and adding facilities in Lapino as a better option than rolling out new hospitals in the regions. We raise our long-term financial forecasts a blended 35%, seeing the company positioned for strong results in 2021 and keeping an aggressive profile thereafter. Limited capex results in a 15% blended FCF yield in the next five years, while our assumption of 50% payout returns an 8% dividend yield.
Valuation. We raise our 12-month Target Price 33% to $10; it now offers an ETR of 49% so we reiterate our Buy recommendation. The stock has gained 16% YTD and now demands 2021F EV/EBITDA of 5.8x and P/E of 7.8x. Key downside risks include lower demand for private healthcare, potential bans on procedures during the pandemic and the slower ramp-up of regional facilities.
191 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com