Page 3 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2023

1 Executive summary

Since the war began, Ukraine has collected about $32bn in
macro-financial aid. According to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal,
Ukraine needs $38bn next year to cover the budget deficit and another
$17bn to implement rapid reconstruction projects. He added that the
EU has promised €18bn in macro-financial aid, and the US will allocate
€13bn. Also, the start of the IMF programme to finance Ukraine is
anticipated by the end of the first quarter.

Attracting macro-financial aid is one of the main directions of diplomatic
work to strengthen Ukraine's internal capacity, the Prime Minister of
Ukraine added.

Shmyhal also emphasised the need to create the diplomatic corps to
expand Ukrainian exports, which have decreased by more than 30% in
2022. He believes that it is necessary to strengthen work with traditional
export markets and to expand the geography of trade and economic
co-operation with the countries of Africa and Latin America.

In December European Commission President Ursula von der
Leyen accidently revealed the cost to Ukraine of the war in a
speech. “It is estimated that more than 20,000 civilians and 100,000
Ukrainian military personnel have died to date,” she said. The comment
drew sharp backlash and the EC later deleted the comments from video
recordings of the address. Bankova has made casualty figures a state
secret, but von der Leyen’s comment shows just how much Ukraine is
paying for Russia’s invasion. Prior to the war, in the eight years of
fighting in Donbas against separatists Ukraine had lost a total of some
14,000 people.

Despite the death toll, Ukrainians remain almost universally committed
to continuing the war until they win. Ukraine has some million people
(many women have also volunteered, and for frontline duty too) in
uniform, with several hundred thousand in active service in the fight.
They face around 400,000 Russians serving in the Russian army, but
with a new mobilisation being prepared – probably for around April
when the weather improves – this war could last for years.

Ukraine has lost an estimated 20% of its territory. At least 22% of
Ukrainian farmland is under Russian control. These areas are a large
part of the territories identified in the Minsk II agreement that would
have been governed as autonomous districts. Due to the failure of the
Minsk II agreement, Russia launched its “special military operation” to
free these areas from the grip of the Ukrainian government. As of today,
it appears Russia has come close to achieving some of its initial goals.

3 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com