Page 7 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2023

It is hard to see how much more the West can do to harm Russia. Most
of the sanctions being imposed now boomerang back on the EU and
can do more damage to Brussels than they do to Moscow. However, in
the long term the sanctions already imposed on Russia are going to be
devastating. The problem is they need time to take effect, and that is
time that Ukraine, being pounded every day by Russian missiles,
doesn’t have.

As the West is mainly sending Ukraine defensive weapons, especially
air defence, the chances of a victor currently seem slim unless Russia’s
morale collapses and it withdraws. The chances of that also look slim
following the appointment of General Sergey Surovikin in October, who
is taking a much more defensive approach and has been digging in for
winter. Moreover, in December half of the new 300,000 conscripts from
September’s partial mobilisation had arrived on the front line and the
other half were being kept as reserves.

One possibility that could end the war is if both sides come to see it as
unwinnable by military means. Then diplomacy is the only way out. By
November it seemed that the Kremlin was starting to think this way as it
signalled it was ready for talks. However, with the liberation of Kherson
still close in the rear-view mirror and the stunning successes of the
Kharkiv offence in September, neither Zelenskiy nor the people are
close to giving up on the fight.

Russia’s tactics to take out the power and heating as winter closes in
are clearly designed to demoralise the population and push Bankova
towards coming to the negotiating table. But at the time of writing
making any sort of prediction remains impossible.

7 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com