Page 8 - CE Outlook Regions 2023

Zeman is likely to be replaced by one of the trio of leading candidates,
comprised of former Mendel University Chancellor Danuse Nerudova,
opposition leader, billionaire, ex-premier and populist ANO party boss
Andrej Babis, and former chief of staff and Nato commander General
Petr Pavel. A December poll by Kantar CZ showed all three candidates
virtually neck and neck. The polls have also indicated that Babis is likely
to lose the second-round runoff to either Nerudova or Pavel.

The ruling coalition has a stable 108-strong majority in the Chamber of
Deputies of 200 deputies and a further 58-strong majority in the Senate
of 81. The coalition has so far cooperated well but it could see rows
between the SPOLU bloc of three centre-right parties (ODS, Christian
Democrats, and TOP 09) and the centrist junior coalition member Pirate
Party, as indicated by the failure of the parties to form a ruling coalition
in Prague together since municipal elections in September. The number
of Pirate Party deputies in the parliament is only four, however, and
even their unlikely departure wouldn’t threaten the existence of the
coalition.

1.2 Politics - Estonia

Estonia holds parliamentary (Rigiikogu) elections on March 5, 2023. As
of the time of writing, the ruling Reform party and the opposition far-right
EKRE party have the highest support ratings. In a November poll, 31%
of eligible Estonian citizens said they would vote for the ruling Reform
Party. EKRE was firmly in second place with 22% support. However,
high energy bills and record-high inflation dampen Reform’s election
prospects.

EKRE is likely to benefit from the country’s acute economic issues, as
well as geopolitical tensions. The slogan of EKRE for the upcoming
elections will be "Save Estonia!". However, EKRE's rating has been
volatile for the past four months, fluctuating between 18% and 25%.
Estonian analysts believe that its supporters tend to include people who
change their mind often and whose decisions are affected by a given
period's media coverage.

8 CE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com