Page 9 - CE Outlook Regions 2023

1.3 Politics - Hungary

Hungary’s ruling radical right-wing Fidesz party won April’s flawed
election with the largest margin since 2010. The economic rebound after
the pandemic, double-digit real wage growth, a populist spending
splurge before the election and a tilted media landscape helped Viktor
Orban to a fourth consecutive supermajority despite the opposition
running on a joint list. If he serves out what is his fifth term, the
59-year-old politician will become the longest-serving prime minister in
the country’s history.
The war in Ukraine changed the narrative of the campaign, putting
economic issues on the sidelines. The prime minister's tactics paid off.
Orban positioned himself as a neutral player in the conflict. Hungary’s
strongman, who has long cosied up to the Russian president,
condemned the invasion but never called Vladimir Putin an aggressor.

In its report after the election, the OSCE said the elections and
simultaneous referendum were marred by the absence of a level playing
field, and the pervasive overlap between the ruling coalition, the same
dire conclusion it came to in 2018.

The anti-LGBT referendum, dubbed by the cabinet the child protection
referendum, held simultaneously with the ballot, was invalid with less
than 50% in support. Orban put divisive cultural issues at the forefront of
the campaign and accused the European Commission of withholding
EU funds from Hungary not because of his regime’s rampant corruption
but because of an infringement procedure launched in response to the
discriminatory anti-LGBT legislation.

After the election disaster, Hungary’s opposition is back to square one in
terms of its future strategy. The leftist-liberal parties and the right-wing
Jobbik failed to exploit the unfolding cost of living crisis after the
government breached its key election promises, the scaling back of
retail energy subsidies.

The government blamed EU sanctions for soaring energy and food
prices. The disinformation campaign has worked as half of Fidesz voters
believe the government did not vote for the sanctions. Protests erupted
in the summer over the abolition of the small business tax (kata) but
waned over time with a clear lack of political leadership.

October saw the largest mass demonstrations in Budapest since 2014
when an estimated 80,000 took to the streets on October 23 to protest
for better working conditions and higher pay for teachers. The rallies
grew in size after a dozen teachers were fired for civil disobedience.
Students, teachers and parents held hundreds of smaller rallies and
sit-ins in the autumn. Fidesz has clearly underestimated the impact of
the “revolt” and although continuous protests have done little to dent its

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