Page 48 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

2.5 Macroeconomy - Kosovo

Kosovo key economic figures and forecasts

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 6.037 6.356 6.671 7.056 6.772 7.958

Real GDP (% y/y) 5.6 4.8 3.4 4.8 -5.3 9.5 2.7

Unemployment rate (avg, 27.5 30.5 29.5 25.7 26 25.8
%)

Nominal industrial wages 1.7 2.1 5.1 5.3 -2.3 3.9
(% y/y)

Producer prices (avg, % y/y) -0.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 -0.6 4.9

Consumer prices (avg, % 0.2 1.5 1.1 2.7 0.2 3.3 12
y/y)

Consumer prices (eop, % 1.3 0.5 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.7 12.5
y/y)

General budget balance (% -1.2 -2.9 -2.9 -7.6 -1.3 -0.8
of GDP)

Public debt (% of GDP) 14.5 16.4 17.1 17.7 22.5 22.4 21.1

Current account balance (% -8 -5.5 -7.6 -5.7 -7 -8.8 -10.9
of GDP)

Official FX reserves (EUR 0.605 0.683 0.769 0.864 0.906 1.1 ?
bn)

Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

2.5.1 GDP growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kosovo’s economy to expand by
3-4% in 2023 and inflation to gradually ease depending on prices on the international
markets.

The gradual projected decline of commodity prices would provide relief to households
and firms, with a moderately expansionary fiscal policy also contributing to more
dynamic activity.

The IMF said that the energy price shock that stemmed from the war in Ukraine and
the tighter global financial conditions will inevitably affect demand and economic
activity in Kosovo in 2022 even though the momentum from the 2021 recovery is still
strong.

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