Page 66 - RusRPTMar23

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Capital Economics thinks Russia’s economy contracted by around 3.5% y/y in Q4, consistent with a very small q/q expansion and a 2.5% fall in overall GDP in 2022.
Russia’s economy held up better than expected in Q4 amid the EU oil embargo, G7 oil price cap and the mobilisation of military reservists (which caused labour shortages in a range of industries). Industrial production expanded by 0.7% in SA q/q terms as oil production hit its highest level since March and manufacturing recovered.
High-frequency data suggest that Russia has been able to re-route its seaborne crude exports to non-Western countries, limiting the disruption so far. The weak spots remain in consumer-facing sectors as car sales are depressed and retail sales contracted by 0.2% SA q/q in Q4.
66 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com