Page 140 - RusRPTFeb23

Our view: The announced 2022 PAX figure is in line with Vedomosti's previous reporting (95.1mn passengers carried in 2022, down 14.3% y/y) and 5% lower than the initial target (100mn passengers, from the development strategy for the air transportation industry). The newly announced 2023 PAX target is in line with the number in the industry development strategy (101.2mn) and implies 6.4% y/y growth this year. We project PAX this year at a more conservative 97.7mn, which implies just 2.7% y/y growth. We think the decrease in subsidies may lead to higher ticket prices for domestic flights, which should limit demand growth. In addition to that, some of Russia's southern airports remain closed, while the Sochi airport (in southern Russia) is overcrowded.
● Trains
The volume of cargo transportation on the Russian railway network collapsed by 125mn tonnes in 2022, Russian Railways CEO Oleg Belozerov said in January. "Unfriendly countries" have stopped delivering cargo to Russian recipients according to Belozerov. At the same time, a little less than half of the lost export volumes - 60mn tonnes – were redirected to "friendly countries" the railways boss added. Since the beginning of the year, the Russian government has already injected more than RUB300bn into the company's capital to help it cope with the rapid and dramatic changes in Russia’s logistical system. In April alone, RUB250bn were allocated from the National Welfare Fund to recapitalize the transport monopoly shortly after it came under Western sanctions.
● Ships
Russian seaports saw an increase in freight turnover by 0.7% in 2022,
reaching 841.5mn tonnes, according to the Federal Agency of Maritime and River Transport, Tass reported on January 13.
This was due to an increase in bulk goods throughput of 3.4% to 436.8mn tonnes, offsetting a decline in dry cargo throughput of 2% to 404.7mn tonnes.
The Arctic Basin saw the strongest growth, with a 4.4% increase in freight turnover to 98.5mn tonnes, with dry cargo throughput rising by 1.5% to 29.4mn tonnes and bulk cargo throughput increasing by 5.7% to 69.1mn tonnes.
However, seaports in the Baltic Sea saw a decline in freight turnover by 2.9% to 245.6mn tonnes, with dry cargo throughput down 18.1% to 97mn tonnes and bulk cargo throughput up 11.8% to 148.6mn tonnes.
The Azov-Black Sea Basin saw a slight uptick of 2.7% in freight turnover to 263.6mn tonnes, with dry cargo throughput rising by 0.6% to 121.1mn tonnes and bulk cargo throughput remaining flat at 142.5mn tonnes.
140 RUSSIA Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com