Page 139 - RusRPTAug22

in the Centre and Volga regions, paired with close-to-average conditions in the Southern Federal District and a sharp rise in estimated harvest areas.
Russian consulting agency SovEcon raised their forecast of Russian wheat crop in 2022 by1.7mn tonnes to 90.9mn tonnes. SovEcon sees Russian wheat export at a record 42.9mn tonnes in 2022/23 MY, up by 0.3mn tonnes from previous forecast.
Ukraine’s grain harvest is expected to fall 34% this year from its historical peak of 2021, according to Interfax-Ukraine. While this fall implies the lowest grain harvest since 2011, it still should allow some 35mn tonnes to be sent overseas.
However, logistical bottlenecks, even with improved use of railways and Danube delta ports, means Ukraine may only manage to export only 15–25mn tonnes of grain. Farmers may be forced to leave over half of the summer harvest in the fields.
Russia’s damage to Ukraine’s agriculture has reached $4-6bn, according to Viktoriia Mykhalchuk, representative of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, speaking on July 29. The damage caused to Ukrainian agriculture as a result of Russia's war varies from $4-6bn, including the damage to “infrastructure such as irrigation equipment, storage, shipping, and processing infrastructure, greenhouses, field crops, farm animals.” Russia and Ukraine supply about a third of the world’s tradeable grain and are key suppliers to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets where some countries are over 80% reliant on the two for grain imports.
The world has been worried about a looming food crisis Ukraine’s grain has been bottled up in the war-torn country. But following the Istanbul grain deal on July 22 the first ship left Ukraine’s port on August 1 for Turkey from where it will be distributed to the global markets. There are a total of 17 ships now being loaded with grain of which ten are ready to depart.
Ukraine has a reported 22mn tonnes of grain in silos and that number will rise as the harvest comes in. By some estimates Ukraine could export up to 50mn tonnes this year if Russia does not interfere in shipments. Russia too is forecast to export 45mn tonnes this year, but that amount may rise on the back of the bumper crop. Russia has also been stealing grain from Ukrainian silos, mixing the grain with its own, and exporting it that will also push its export numbers up.
139 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com