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Poland’s coalition government of Law and Justice (PiS) and United Poland is internally divided about having to meet the Commission’s conditions to release the funds.
For PiS, it appears a necessary step to end the deadlock just over a year before the general election. The money is likely to be a boon for the government ahead of the general election due in the autumn of 2023 if it can overcome woes like inflation and the growing cost of living.
United Poland’s chief Zbigniew Ziobro, who is the justice minister, said last week, however, that the deal was
a mistake. “We are being subject to blackmail,” Ziobro told private radio RMF FM.
Some experts suggest that the deal to unlock the funds is just a fig leaf for the Commission to resolve the issue, which has become awkward in the context of Poland becoming the EU's key member state in the context of the war in Ukraine. Poland has taken in by far the most war refugees from Ukraine and is the hub of military and humanitarian help for the war-torn eastern country.
“[The] Problem of course is that the ... Commission may come up with easy to meet, nonsensical, partial "milestones" and/or pretend they are met on the back of cosmetic/fake changes, leaving systemic industrial-scale violation of EU rule of law requirements in place,” Laurent Pech, Professor of European Law at Middlesex University of London, tweeted.
The spat about the recovery fund might also have Poland change its mind about the global corporate tax reform, which Poland has been blocking, Politico Europe claimed.
Poland will apply for the first payout from the recovery fund as soon as July, Development and Technology Minister Waldemar Buda told the government broadcaster TVP on May 17.
Poland is looking to receive €2.8bn in grants and €1.3bn in loans this year, Buda said. He added that the funds would help finance the development of renewable energy sources, build more kindergartens, improve internet access, and upgrade railway infrastructure.
Nordic Nato accession set to reinforce Baltic states' security
Linas Jegelevicius in Vilnius
The accession of Finland and Sweden to Nato will transform the strategic position of Latvia, Lithu- ania and Estonia, but the Baltic states still need futher reinforcement to deter Russian aggression, argue Baltic defence ministries and experts.
“Finland and Sweden joining Nato would very clearly strengthen Baltic security as well as Nato security as a whole,” Estonia’s defence ministry told bne IntelliNews.
“It would strengthen the Nato naval dimension and increase the allied naval presence in the Baltic Sea, thereby enhancing deterrence and defence in the entire region,” a Lithuanian defence ministry spokesman emphasised.
Finland and Sweden, both previously non-aligned, have rethought their strategic position, given the way Ukraine was picked off by Russia because it was not a member of the Western defence alliance. Both countries have also rushed
to send materiel to bolster Ukraine’s defences.
On May 16 Finland’s parliament approved its Nato application and Sweden’s government agreed to move forward with its approach to Nato. It is expected that a formal joint approach to Nato will be made during Finnish President Sauli Niinisto’s official visit to Stockholm on May 17-18 this week.
Accession requires unanimity from the existing 30 member states, which is expected to be finalised later this year. Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he is opposed to the entry of the Nordic states – because
they allow Kurdish rebel movements to operate legally in their countries – Turkey is not expected to veto their accession.
Exceptionally close co-operation
Both Finland and Sweden have already been closely integrated with Nato, partly through the Joint Expeditionary
Force – a Nordic and Baltic security force, together with the UK and the Netherlands – as well as regular interoperability exercises.
They also already share many security interests with the Baltic states, notably regarding Russian naval and air incursions in the Baltic Sea area.
The Lithuanian defence ministry said the Balts and Nordic states have developed close and enduring co-operation in many areas, including security and defence. “Our co-operation is exceptionally close, the Nato membership would elevate it
to another level of co-operation,” the spokesman underlined.
An official at the Estonian Ministry
of Defence told bne IntelliNews that Finland and Sweden are “already key defence co-operation partners” for Estonia in the Baltic region. “But these countries joining Nato would take that co-operation to another, much higher and allied level,” he underscored.
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