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Finland and Sweden join Nato,” the defence ministry official said.
A Lithuanian journalist specialising
on defence issues told bne IntelliNews that Sweden and Finland’s Nato memberships would mean a “great deal” to the security of the Baltic states.
“Because it would enhance the spectrum of capabilities, the area of operations and, not just friendly but firmly
allied nations bound by the security arrangements...of Article 5. It would also affect certain capabilities and operational planning by Russia if they had any hostile intentions towards the Baltic states,” he said.
When asked how the Baltic and Nordic states could work more closely on defence issues, he said: “ISTAR [linking sensors in intelligence, surveillance, target intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance],
In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lithuania raised defence spend- ing to 2.52% of GDP. The current budget allocates just over €1.2bn, or 2.05% of GDP, to the country’s defence.
Latvia has decided to increase spending to 2.5% by 2025, implying about €100mn ($111mn) in extra funding, which will be used for medium-range air defence systems, ground force mechanisation and cyber security, among other upgrades.
Meanwhile, Estonia, the smallest Baltic state, has said it will increase defence spending over the next four years to 2.5% of its GDP. Estonia's current defence spending is 2.3% of GDP.
Nato’s Western European members have recently moved more troops into the Baltic states, Poland and Romania to strengthen the pact’s deterrence against Russia and provide reassurance to the
create a “no cross air line” stretching for 240 km along Poland’s eastern border with Ukraine.
More secure than they have ever been
More is envisaged. According to the Nato summit declaration of March 24: “We will also significantly strengthen our longer-term deterrence and defence posture, and will further develop the full range of ready forces and capabilities necessary to maintain credible deterrence and defence."
“The Baltic states are being reinforced like they could hardly ever dream of in 2004, 2008 or even compared to 2014,” said the defence journalist. “A paradox, that even in dangerous and destabilising times such as these, when Russia has unleashed its true self, Baltic states are more secure now than they have ever been, given the increased investment in their own security as well as increasing allied support,” the analyst noted.
However, the Baltic governments
are calling for even larger and more permanent forces to be stationed in their countries, including heavier offensive weapons such as tanks, fighter jets and air and sea defence systems. They want the multinational battle groups in each country to be boosted to brigades of 3,000-5,000 troops. They also want the air-policing missions to be upgraded
to air defence, so they can shoot down Russian intruders in their airspace.
This would complete the transformation of the Nato forces in the region from just a tripwire into something that would contain Russia and potentially defend the countries in the event of a conflict until Nato forces from Western Europe could arrive.
“Russia has a military advantage in the region; in Kaliningrad it hosts huge offensive capabilities, including dual- capable missile systems, battle tanks, artillery systems. Russia's war against Ukraine showed that Russia can take military actions very quickly in the region if it decides so,” the Lithuanian defence ministry emphasises to
bne IntelliNews.
“The island of Gotland, aka the unsinkable aircraft carrier, ...would play an ever more important role in deterrence”
maritime security and surveillance capabilities come to mind; also a dramatic increase of availability of friendly naval and air infrastructure in Sweden and Finland, in case of hostile activities. The island of Gotland, aka the unsinkable aircraft carrier, ...would play an ever more important role in deterrence.”
Built from scratch
The Nordic states’ accession to Nato will come on top of the efforts that the Baltic states and the Western defence alliance are already making to boost defence in the region.
The Baltic states have built armed forces from scratch since they regained their independence in 1991. They have long been among the few Nato members that have devoted more than the recom- mended 2% of GDP to defence since they joined the alliance in 2004.
Eastern Flank states. It has also activated its 10,000-strong rapid response force for the first time.
The Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroups stationed in Poland and the three Baltic states since 2017, following Russia’s invasion of Crimea, are being doubled in size to more than 6,000 troops. These are part of the 40,000 troops on the Eastern Flank from Estonia to Bulgaria that are under direct Nato command – ten times the figure before the invasion – and the 330,000 total number of national troops in the eight Nato flank states.
More fighter jets have been sent to the region, particularly the Baltic states, which lack supersonic fighters of their own. Western air defence systems have also been deployed on the Eastern Flank, such as the UK’s Sky Sabre defence system, which is intended to
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