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The Nato forces in the region are being transformed from just a tripwire into something that can contain Russia and potentially defend the countries in the event of a conflict until Nato forces from Western Europe can arrive.
“It is in the Russian interest for Finland and Sweden to stay out of Nato, as that keeps Nato and EU from closer security co-operation and keeps separate the defence efforts of Sweden, Finland and the Nato members that share the Baltic Sea. Such a division had allowed Moscow's bilateral influence to matter more,” Tabuns underscored.
What is important for the Baltic states, he says, is that the Baltic Sea – likely to be contested in any potential conflict – would not be completely blocked for the purposes of reinforcement.
“Therefore the security of key points such as [the island of] Gotland and the energy and telecom infrastructure that crosses the Baltic Sea is crucial, and is reinforced when backed by a collective security arrangement. Russia may not be able to stop that by opening another front right now. But it is expected to further threaten the two states to delay a Nato decision until a moment when it is better able to stop it,” the BSF director pointed out.
Spectrum of capabilities
Once they eventually join, the two Nordic states are expected to benefit Baltic security in many different ways.
“Finland and Sweden's accession to Nato will allow [the enhancement of] our situational awareness on Russia's mili- tary posture and military activities in the region. As Nato members, Baltic and Nordic states would even more closely participate in Nato common activi-
ties such as exercises and co-ordinate national activities to deter Russia,” said the Lithuanian defence ministry.
Asked how the Balts and Nordics can co-operate more militarily in the Baltics in warding off Russian military threats, the spokesman pointed out that the two countries becoming part of Nato will mean “integrating command structures, joint planning and more closely aligned exercises – an essential part of military operations”.
“Situational awareness in the airspace and at sea will improve, and intelligence sharing will be further facilitated if
In particular, the two Nordic states would significantly bolster Nato’s sea and air defence forces in and over the Baltic Sea, which would now become a “Nato lake” surrounded by members of the Western military alliance. Among other things, this should mean that the Baltic states could be more easily reinforced by sea in the event of a Russian invasion.
This would partly offset the Baltic states’ weakened strategic position since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, together with its creeping takeover of Belarus. Belarus’ role as a launchpad
for the invasion of Ukraine means that Russia’s border has effectively moved up to the Belarus frontier, endangering Lithuania and Poland, which are contiguous with Belarus.
The invasion also meant the three Baltic Nato member states were very vulnerable to being isolated from the rest of Nato.
A Russian thrust from Belarus towards its Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea could quickly close off the 65-km Suwalki gap between Poland and the three former Soviet republics. This would make it very difficult for Nato to reinforce them and fulfil its Article 5 guarantee to defend its members.
Angry reaction
These risks have only been underlined by Russia’s angry reaction to Finland’s and Sweden’s decision to join Nato. The
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Kremlin described Finland’s move as “absolutely” a threat to Russia. Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters that “expanding Nato yet again does not make our continent more stable and safe”, according to Interfax, the Russian news agency.
Putin told Niinisto last week that Finland is making a “mistake” by joining Nato, as it faces “no security threats”.
There are fears that – once free of its Ukraine entanglement – Russia could take military advantage of the interim period this year before Finland and Sweden receive the full protection of Nato’s collective defence agreement under Article 5.
Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at the Nato summit of foreign ministers in Berlin on Sunday that in this interim period, Nato would “look into ways to provide security assurances, including by increasing Nato’s presence in the Baltic region, in and around Finland and Sweden”.
Otto Tabuns, executive director of
Baltic Security Foundation (BSF), an organisation promoting the security and defence of the Baltic Sea region, told bne IntelliNews that Finland and Sweden choosing to join Nato “could increase tensions with Russia”, but would “undoubtedly benefit” the Baltic states’ defence.