Page 27 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

2.2 FX
US dollar/RUB weakens slightly
The forecast for the US dollar/RUB exchange rate is RUB91.2 per dollar for 2024, with an average rate of RUB94.2 in the final quarter. Analysts project further weakening to 95.0 in 2025, 97.5 in 2026, and 99.7 in 2027, reflecting a depreciation of 0.6-1.1% compared to September estimates.
"Western sanctions alongside demand outstripping supply are weakening the ruble. In the last week of November, the Russian currency experienced a dramatic collapse, down almost 25% from summer highs. The authorities don’t have many tools to tackle this problem: half of Russia’s gold reserves are frozen by sanctions, and the rest might well be needed to fend off threats to financial stability. The National Welfare Fund contains relatively little in the way of liquid assets. Without non-residents, who have largely exited Russian currency markets, and the free movement of capital (this has been restricted since 2023) interest rates are no longer an effective tool to stabilise the currency. Ruble volatility is the new normal," says Prokopenko.
SberCIB analysts predict the dollar firming to RUB115 by the end of 2025. The weakening of the ruble may continue against the backdrop of rising inflation, export problems and the global growth of the dollar, according to SberCIB. Other analysts predict that the dollar exchange rate will average around RUB100 in 2025. Among the factors putting pressure on the national currency exchange rate, analysts identified:
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