Page 28 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

· high inflation;
· potential reduction in exports or problems with settlements.
SberCIB explained that this could happen due to a reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe, the actions of the future US administration and an increase in discounts on Russian export goods;
· further strengthening of the dollar due to the risks of slowing economic growth in the EU and China amid the increase in tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
Ruble crashed in November 2024, to remain weak in 2025.
The Russian ruble has slid to its lowest levels against the dollar since the invasion of Ukraine and weakened against the Chinese yuan in the last week of November, crashing through the RUB100 to the dollar mark to end at around RUB110. The Russian ruble tumbled to its lowest level since March 2022.
Moscow will likely be able to halt the freefall triggered by mounting sanctions pressure, but the currency’s value will continue gradually declining in 2025, analysts say.
Russia halted trading in dollars and euros on its leading financial marketplace, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), in June in response to US sanctions. The ruble also weakened against China’s yuan, which is still traded on the Moscow Exchange. The ruble fell below the mark of RUB15 per yuan on November 28, the first time since March 2022.
Analysts have offered several explanations for the ruble's sudden downturn. Simply put, new Western sanctions and seasonal factors increased the demand for foreign currency, and Russian exporters did not sell enough currency to offset this rise.
The latest US restrictions on Moscow on November 21 target Gazprombank, the largest and hitherto most important remaining non-sanctioned Russian bank used by Moscow for energy trade, among many other institutions.
Gazprombank worked not only to service Gazprom's gas trade, but all of Russia's foreign trade, said Sergei Vakulenko.
The end of Russia's pipeline gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine in 2025 could also have an impact on the FX market.
With 25% of Russia’s consumer goods imported from abroad, a 10% drop in the ruble exchange rate could add up to 2.5 percentage points
28 Russia OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com