Page 29 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

to Russia's inflation rate, according to VTB’s Pyanov.
The Central Bank has little room to hike interest rates and make ruble holdings more attractive. The Russian key interest rate is already at a record high of 21%.
This leaves the Central Bank to halt foreign currency purchases, which are designed to diversify the country's reserves, and for Russian exporters to increase sales of their foreign currency holdings.
The most effective tool would be to force Russian exporters to buy rubles with their foreign exchange revenue. While this would help stop the currency’s decline, it would shift problems onto exporters who need the currency for their operations.
Most Russian experts expect that the ruble will likely stabilise around the 100-120 mark rather than spiral to RUB150 or more to the dollar.
Economist Dmitry Polevoy said the "sustainable level" for the ruble's exchange rate in 2025 would be closer to 95-105 per dollar than above RUB110 per dollar.
The ruble will stabilise "around current levels" in the next two to three months, but there will be no return to its pre-shock levels, says economist Alexander Isakov.
Russia faces challenges with growing export payment delays
Revenues from Russian exports are accumulating abroad due to increasing delays in international trade settlements, caused by US pressure on financial institutions in countries maintaining friendly relations with the Kremlin. According to data released by the CBR on December 16, foreign financial assets grew by nearly $60bn in the first 11 months of 2024, compared with $43bn during the same period last year. In November, these assets increased for the third consecutive month. The CBR attributed the rise in accounts receivable for Russian companies to delays in external trade payments. It will be interesting to see how this situation is addressed. Previously, similar challenges were mitigated by reinvesting the funds for better times. However, one cannot endlessly earn without retaining anything.
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