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around $71-72 a barrel in 2025–2026. The discount on Russian Urals blend crude oil relative to the Brent price should also hover around $12 a barrel as long as sanctions pressure on Russia remains at the current level.
Import volumes in 2024 should shrink from 2023. Russian imports have been hampered by sanctions and difficulties with international payment transfers. The value of imports declined by 5.5% y/y in the first eight months of 2024. The threat of sanctions targeting third-country financial institutions doing business with Russia has proved particularly effective in preventing Russian international transactions, or at least raised the cost of circumventing sanctions.
Lower imports will boost net exports, which in turn will have a positive effect on Russia’s current account in 2024 and a neutral impact in 2025 and 2026.
35 Russia OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com
