Page 34 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

The IEA estimates that the average export price of Russian crude oil in January-October was about $70 per barrel, compared with $63 per barrel a year earlier.
Export volumes of both crude oil and petroleum products declined slightly in the last months of 2024. Russian oil production has contracted and petroleum product exports have been reduced by the gasoline export ban that came into effect at the beginning of August. The value of service exports rose by 1% y/y in January-October to $34bn.
Russia's imports of goods have been growing slightly at the end of 2024, but imports have contracted throughout 2024. In January-October, the value of goods imports was $240bn, 5% lower than a year earlier.
The decline in imports is due to slower demand growth, the weakening of the ruble and the difficulties caused by sanctions. By contrast, the value of service imports gained by 7% y/y in January-October to $67bn.
The fastest growth was in IT services, which were 22% higher than a year earlier. However, the share of IT services in total service imports was still only 5%. Half of service imports consist of tourism, and tourism services imports grew by 13% y/y.
No major shifts in the volume of Russian exports are expected in 2025 or during the forecast period. Demand persists for crude oil, Russia’s biggest export commodity, and the main buyers of Russian energy commodities, China and India, are unlikely to reduce their purchases. Looking at oil futures contracts from September 23 this year, we ascertain that the average price of benchmark Brent crude oil should settle at $82 a barrel this year and decline to an average of
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