Page 73 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

The level of borrowing in 2025 is expected to be similar. As of September 30, 2024, Russia's sovereign debt profile is as follows:
External Debt
● Total External Debt: $306.1bn, a decrease of $10.7bn (3.4%)
since the end of 2023. This reduction is primarily due to a decline in liabilities in other sectors, mainly through loan repayments, including those within direct investment relationships.
● External Debt as a percentage of GDP: 15.7% in 2023, down from 17.0% in 2022, indicating a declining trend in external debt relative to the country's economic output.
Domestic Debt
● Public Domestic Debt: RUB20,5 trillion as of April 2024,
showing an increase from RUB20,5 trillion in March 2024. This reflects the government's ongoing borrowing activities within the domestic market.
● National Government Debt: Reached an all-time high of $384.2bn in June 2022, with fluctuations observed in subsequent periods.
In the new three-year budget the upper limit of domestic public debt at the beginning of 2026 is set at RUB29.38 trillion, external $61.1bn, or €55.5bn.
At the beginning of 2027, the levels are RUB34.046 trillion of domestic and $59.2bn, or €53.4bn, external; for 2028, the levels are RUB39.005 trillion of domestic and $56.5bn, or €50.9bn, external. Expenditures on servicing the public debt in 2025 are expected to be at the level of RUB3.18 trillion; in 2026, RUB3.475 trillion, and in 2027, RUB3.59 trillion.
Gross international reserves
Despite having $300bn of its reserves frozen, Russia has enough in liquid reserves to cover its total external debt with cash and still have enough left over to ensure that it has more than the three months of import cover economists say is necessary to preserve the value of the currency.
The CBR sold off all but $5bn of its US-based holdings before the war, and in the course of 2024 emptied its accounts of euros, pounds and yen as well. The cash part of its reserves is now almost entirely held in Chinese yuan, which makes up half the total and the other half held as monetary gold.
73 Russia OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com