Page 87 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

Metals
Gold is forecast to reach new record highs in 2025, driven by ongoing monetary policy easing by central banks and a possible shift towards safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions. Central banks are also expected to continue purchasing gold to diversify reserves. The outlook for industrial metals remains uncertain, with trade frictions and potential amendments to the US Inflation Reduction Act posing challenges. Markets are monitoring whether recent Chinese support measures will bolster commodity demand or if additional stimulus will be necessary.
Agriculture
Grain markets may be adversely affected by trade disputes, particularly if retaliatory tariffs target US agricultural exports, reminiscent of 2018 scenarios. Such developments could exert downward pressure on prices. Weather conditions continue to be a critical risk for soft commodities like cocoa and coffee, with anticipated volatility persisting into 2025 until supply forecasts become clearer.
8.0 Markets Outlook
What will happen to the Russian IPO market with high rates
Many companies that publicly announced their preparations for going public in 2024 have said that they are postponing their plans indefinitely – for example, Rostelecom subsidiary RTK-TsOD and the trading platform Kifa have done so. There are still many people willing to conduct an initial public offering (IPO), but they are afraid of the liquidity deficit that has formed against the backdrop of a high key rate: from July to October, it rose from 16 to 21%. During this time, the main benchmark of the stock market – the Moscow Exchange Index – fell by 10%.
The IPO boom that started in 2023 was triggered by Western restrictions: investors lost access to most foreign assets, and companies lost access to listing on foreign exchanges, and as a result, supply and demand converged within the Russian contour. In 2023, eight companies held IPOs, and in 2024, there were already 14. 13 of them were listed on the Moscow Exchange, and the microelectronics manufacturer Element chose the St. Petersburg Exchange. In the first half of 2024, an average of two companies held IPOs per month, but at the end of July, a two-month lull set in on the market, which was interrupted only in the fall by deals between Arenadata, Ozon Pharmaceuticals and Lambumiz.
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