Page 88 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

There is no hope for a quick easing of monetary policy yet, but as soon as a window of opportunity opens on the market, dozens of companies will try to get into it, experts from large companies that organised IPOs interviewed by Vedomosti believe. According to their estimates, such a market recovery may not occur before 2025.
Plans are postponed
The number of real candidates for an IPO in the coming months is about ten, but the plans of future issuers may change depending on the market situation, noted Vitaly Manzhos, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.
The current situation on the stock market is forcing adjustments to issuers' plans to enter the stock exchange, says Andrey Nedbaylo, acting head of retail investment Business at Alfa Bank. According to his observations, issuers are postponing placements until next year. More than five transactions have been postponed since this autumn – mainly from technology companies of various specializations, says Vladislav Tsyplakov, head of equity capital markets at Sovcombank .
Due to high rates, the overall valuation of the Russian stock market has fallen and companies are shifting their plans so as not to sell their stake in the business too cheaply, explained Vasily Karpunin, head of analytics at Alfa Investments. Investors see that alternative, less risky investments are now providing more profitability than participating in an IPO. The expert recalls that investors' earnings from half of all IPOs that took place over the past year and a half were less than the return on deposits (currently, the maximum return on deposits exceeds 20% – Vedomosti). The IPO index, which tracks the dynamics of securities of new issuers that have entered the stock exchange since the fall of 2023, has fallen by 22.4% since the beginning of the year. Therefore, now companies have to either value their businesses cheaper in order to allow investors to earn on the growth of shares, or postpone the placement or refuse it altogether, concluded Karpunin.
The number of companies ready for an IPO, but which have postponed their plans until a more suitable moment, exceeds 50, said Leonid Pavlikov, managing director for equity capital markets at Finam. Many of them work in the financial and IT sectors.
The schedule of deals for the next year or two is very large, and IPO candidates represent a wide range of economic sectors, says Nedbaylo. But there will be no more market deals to raise capital until the end of 2024, says Tsyplakov. Irina Tsaava, director of equity capital markets at Sinara investment bank, also does not expect any major placements this year, primarily due to the CBR's tough rhetoric. It is
88 Russia OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com