Page 10 - Turkey Outlook 2023

The challenger

The name of the opposition challenger is not yet available. But it won’t
be so important anyway. In that dreamt-of fair fight, Erdogan would
have no chance even against an empty water bottle.

For anyone hoping to unseat Erdogan, it will be important to manage
election night shrewdly and open a breach in the external consensus
that supports the incumbent.

Istanbul’s opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu proved himself capable of
grappling with the Erdogan camp and winning in the local elections held
in 2019. Since then, Erdogan has sidelined him. Imamoglu in
December received a jail sentence for uttering the word “fools” about
some officials (yes, seriously. It goes without saying, the conviction was
not secured on a well-founded case in law). If the jail sentence is
approved by the higher courts during the election campaign months
ahead, any Imamoglu candidacy would have to be dropped.

Erdogan wants to instead take on his favourite whipping boy, namely
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the main opposition Republican People’s
Party (CHP) for many years. However, it is questionable whether
Kilicdaroglu will be able to show any calmness or restraint if he is faced
by Erdogan once again declaring what opponents perceive as a
brass-faced fake victory.

Most Turks think Kilicdaroglu is a fool. But his long career as a public
servant and then ‘politician’ imply that he is only playing the fool. Turks
say “nod your head, take your salary” about public servants.

In person, Kilicdaroglu is a real gentleman who commands respect.
The sentiment is that he would never steal a single lira. But the
phenomenon of the “CHP’s general manager Mr Kemal” is simply that
in Turkish politics he’s followed his predecessor’s path in serving as
Erdogan’s punch bag for longer than a decade.

During Kilicdaroglu’s tenure, Turkey has collapsed. He, as the main
opposition leader, has mutely awaited the day when he will make it into
government.

At the time of writing, Kilicdaroglu is overtly pushing to become the
opposition bloc’s challenger to Erdogan. As things stand, he will get the
nomination. But don’t bet the farm on it. This is Turkey. Everything can
change in a single second.

A third alternative for challenger is Ankara opposition mayor Mansur
Yavas. In 2014, Yavas won the Ankara election. His supporters left the
vote count to celebrate his victory. During the morning, the AKP

10 Turkey Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com