Page 12 - Turkey Outlook 2023

The Turks are afraid of a repeat of the period of terror and violence that
began with the June 2015 elections and ended with the introduction of
the currently prevailing “Turkish-type executive presidential system” in
2017.

The government has been blaming the pro-Kurdish PKK for the attack.
It has also launched some air bombardment campaigns in northern
Syria and Iraq, but mainly for public relations purposes.

The air space across that region is controlled by the US and Russia.
The US-Russia duo open the air space occasionally and Turkey is
allowed to use ground forces in limited areas.

Some rockets have, meanwhile, been hitting Turkish border crossings
and towns on the Syria frontier. On December 16, a bomb attack
targeted Turkish police forces in Diyarbakir province. Kurdish
organisations have not claimed responsibility.

The risk of a further escalation in the exchanges is clear. Turkey’s
government continues to seek permission from the US and Russia for a
ground operation in Syria.

What’s next?

Some ground battles in Syria, political assassinations, bigger terror
attacks, some other bloody moves (as seen in the June-November
2015 period), closure of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Peoples’ Party
(HDP) (the HDP has reserve parties, this move would not make sense),
the seizure of the Istanbul Municipality, the jailing/banning from politics
of popular Istanbul CHP mayor Ekrem Imamoglu – these are among
expectations for possible moves in the pre-election period ahead.

Erdogan’s health

Erdogan (who will turn 69 at the end of February) has lately shown
relatively good health as far as can be ascertained from his
appearances in public. Nevertheless, his physical and mental
performances certainly remain somewhat volatile. He can at any time
go missing from public view for a few days. He shows some physical
difficulties in front of the cameras.

Since 2011, Erdogan has gradually lost his cognition of reality. It rained
money in Turkey up until 2013 due to global conditions. And up until
2019, Erdogan continued to distribute wealth from domestic
accumulation.

12 Turkey Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com