Page 113 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

5.9 Real economy - Romania
5.9.1 Retail
The seasonally adjusted retail sales (private consumption) index contracted by 1% q/q in the third quarter of the year (Q3), after it dropped by 0.5% in Q2, according to data published by Romania's statistics office INS.
Private consumption is thus making a negative contribution to the overall economic growth for the second consecutive quarter after it had been a key growth driver during the previous decade.
Recently revised statistical data reconfirm the decrease of the annual growth to 1.0% y/y in Q2 from 2.4% in Q1. The decline was driven this time round by household consumption, whereas general government consumption posted a markedly faster expansion, and gross fixed capital formation reported only a slightly slower annual growth rate, but still particularly high.
In annual terms, the growth rate eased to only 0.2% y/y in Q3, the weakest performance since the lockdown silenced private consumption in 2020. Non-food sales, which best captures consumer confidence, remained relatively robust with a 2.3% y/y advance in Q3 when it still dropped by 1.1% compared to Q2 (in seasonally adjusted terms).
The food sales index was not significantly helped by the price-capping mechanism enforced in August and contracted by 0.4% q/q (-1.4% q/q in Q2) although preserving a positive 1.4% y/y annual advance.
Car fuel sales posted the weakest performance: -5.4% y/y and -0.9% q/q.
Retail sales rose by 0.9% m/m in October, in seasonally-adjusted terms, recouping the losses incurred over the previous three months.
The annual growth rate (+1.8% y/y) remains fragile, but it was dragged down by the shrinking sales of fuel (-7.0% y/y), while sales of non-food
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