Page 13 - TURKRptNov22

● Eurobond auctions: In October, the Treasury sold $2.5bn worth of 3-year sukuk papers at 9.758% coupon.
● NPLs, bailouts and debt restructuring queues are building up.
● Snap polls: Anyone expecting Erdogan to vanish quietly should probably think again. He has three options:
- He can delay the elections (a war is the legal option for a delay).
- He can go for a harder dictatorship, just as Alexander Lukashenko did in Belarus.
- Or, he can hand over the presidency (though losing its protection would spell big trouble for both him and his family across the globe).
Erdogan will try any chance he gets. The risk of blood on the streets remains significant.
Some battles in Syria, political assassinations, terror attacks, some other bloody moves (as seen in the June-November 2015 period), closure of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Peoples’ Party (HDP) (the HDP has reserve parties, this move would not make sense), the seizure of the Istanbul Municipality, the jailing/banning from politics of popular Istanbul CHP mayor Ekrem Imamoglu – these are among expectations for possible moves in the period ahead.
The ultimate end: A new version of the ruling AKP, working under an IMF programme, is the likeliest potential major change you might see on the road ahead.
13 TURKEY Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com