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January 18, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 29
bne:Credit
Deepening downturn in Turkey indicated by November industrial output data
Kazakh central bank may hike policy rate on March 4
Turkey’s calendar-adjusted industrial production index contracted for a third consecutive month in November and at an escalating pace of 6.5% y/y, data from national statistics office TUIK showed on January 14.
“Unadjusted November IP registered a decrease of 6.5%, worse than the consensus estimate at 3% and our estimate at 4%. There was no working day difference between the same period of 2017, hence the calendar adjusted index also posted a 6.5% y/y decrease. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the IP lost ground by 0.3% m/m. In sequential terms, the [month on month] fall in IP
has stretched to its fourth consecutive month,” Ozlem Bayraktar Goksen of Tacirler Invest said in a research note.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) is considering introduc- ing a rate hike at its next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for March 4, the regulator said on January 14.
The prediction was based on inflationary risks stemming from external factors, including the volatility of prices in world oil and other commodities markets and the tightening of monetary policy by other central banks such as the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). Adjusting to these external pressures would help the NBK achieve its long-term inflation rate target of 4% by 2020. Annual consumer price inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 5.3% in December, down from the 7.1% recorded a year previously.
The Kazakh regulator held its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% at the latest monetary policy review meeting on January 14.
Slovakia’s economy could experience weak growth if the country does not deal with challenges such as inefficient public administra- tion, weak control of rent seeking, tax evasion and corruption, said Yves Mersch, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank (ECB) at a conference on January 11.
“The Slovak economy has built strong ties to the Single Market, outperforming its central and eastern European neighbours in the euro area. Its export share is almost 100% of GDP, while nearly 20% of Slovak jobs depend on EU exports. ... joining the euro alone contributed to a 12% increase in Slovakia’s exports, and helped to strengthen its institutions” Mersch said.
Slovakia at risk of weak growth, according to ECB