Page 11 - Poland Outlook 2023

update.

According to S&P, Poland's ratings "could come under pressure if the
negative impact of the conflict in Ukraine were more severe than we
currently expect, resulting in a much weaker medium-term growth
outlook”.

"Ratings downside could also materialise in the event of a material and
protracted reduction in EU transfers to Poland as a result of continuous
political tensions between Poland and EU authorities, for example,"
S&P said in an update released in September.

However, it remains plausible that “once the effects of the conflict [in
Ukraine] subside, Poland resumed its strong economic performance,
and the government's fiscal performance proved stronger than we
currently project” and that Poland’s rating could be upgraded.

Not everyone shares the agencies’ outlook on Poland’s fiscal policy,
however.

“In fiscal policy, we believe that Poland will be a negative outlier next
year within the region. In an election year, government borrowing needs
are a major risk,” ING wrote in December.

11 Poland Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com