Page 6 - Poland Outlook 2023

without much friction seems a small miracle. Poles opened up their
houses and wallets to help in the weeks and months immediately after
the invasion.

Nearly a year on, Ukrainians have blended in, finding jobs and sending
their children to Polish schools. Joint effort by the people and the
government – which granted refugees most basic rights that Poles have
– has not resulted in a backlash yet. The question is open whether a
deepening economic crisis will make nationalistic fervour a factor in
politics.

3.0 Macro Economy

Poland: key economic figures and forecasts, e = estimate

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (e)

Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 424.3 464.5 496 525.1 554.1 582.8 >640 (e) ~650

Real GDP (% y/y) 3.1 4.9 5.2 4.3 3.3 3.2 ~4 (e) ~1

Industrial output (% y/y) 2.9 6.5 6 4.2 3.5 4 10.9 1 ~2

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 8.9 7.3 6.1 5.5 5.7 6.3 5.1 2 ~5.5

Nominal industrial wages (% y/y) 4.1 5.6 7.1 6.6 6.5 5.8 13.4 3 ~11

Producer prices (avg, % y/y) -0.1 2.9 2.2 1.5 2 n.a. 22.6 4 ~15

Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) -0.6 2 1.7 2.3 3 2.1 ~15 (e) ~14

Consumer prices (eop, % y/y) 0.8 2.1 1.1 2.7 2.5 2 ~17 (e) ~10

General government balance (% -2.5 -1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -7.1 -1.8 -3.5 (e) ~-5
of GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP) 54.1 50.6 48.9 47 44.9 43 50.3 5 52.7

Current account balance (% of -0.3 0.1 -0.7 0 -0.4 -0.1 -4 (e) -2.7
GDP)

Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 108.4 94.3 102.3 109 112 146.6 ~156.7 6 ~180

Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 74.5 72.6 64.5 59.8 56.9 54.9 53 7 n/a

1 January-November
2 November
3 January-November
4 January-November
5 As at the end of Q3 2022
6 November
7 As at the end of Q3 2022

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