Page 44 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

This highlights a shift toward higher-value-added production, though it still falls short of the 0.6% y/y growth forecast by the government’s Commission for Economic Forecasting (CNP).
Romania’s industrial sector faces a challenging road ahead, with growth largely tied to eurozone performance. However, improvements in value-added metrics offer a silver lining, suggesting a gradual reorientation of the industry toward higher productivity and profitability.
Further industrial recovery will likely depend on stabilisation in external markets and domestic policy support to bolster competitiveness.
2.10 Macroeconomy – Serbia
Key economic figures and forecasts
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 40.8 44.7 48.1 49.0 55.9 63.5 75.2
Real GDP (% y/y) 2.4 4.6 4.8 -1.0 7.9 2.6 3.8
Industrial output (% y/y) 3.9 1.2 0.1 -0.2 6.6 1.9 2.7
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 14.5 13.7 11.3 9.7 11.1 9.5 9.4
Nominal industrial wages (% y/y) 3.9 6.5 10.6 9.4 9.6 13.8 14.8
Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) 3.0 2.0 1.9 1.3 7.9 15.1 7.6
Budget deficit/surplus (% of GDP) 0.7 0.6 0.2 -8.3 -4.6 -3.3 -2.2
Public debt (% of GDP) 55.5 51.4 49.7 54.4% 53.9 52.4 48.0
Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.0 -4.6 -6.6 -3.9 -4.1 -6.6 -2.4
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 10.0 11.3 13.4 13.5 16.5 19.4 24.9
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 62.5 59.6 58.7 62.8 65.2 66.0 60.4
RSD/EUR (avg) 121.3 118.3 117.9 117.6 117.6 117.5 117.3
RSD/USD (avg) 107.5 100.3 105.3 103.0 99.5 111.9 108.4
Source: Republic of Serbia statistics office (RZS), National Bank of Serbia (NBS) *Revised data from RZS published in 2024
2.10.1 GDP growth
Serbia’s economic growth outlook for 2025 is robust, with the country positioned among Europe’s strongest performers.
44 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com