Page 45 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

This builds on a foundation of sustained economic expansion in recent years. A revision of GDP figures by Serbia's Statistical Office (RZS) in 2024 recalculated real GDP growth for 2023 at 3.8%, up from the previously estimated 2.5%.
In 2024, Serbia maintained one of the highest growth rates in Europe, with real GDP growth recorded at 4.7% y/y in Q1, 4.2% in Q2 and 3.1% in the Q3. The construction sector was a key contributor, surging by 14.2% in Q1. Growth was further supported by strong consumer spending and significant state and foreign direct investment (FDI).
Strong FDI inflows reflect growing confidence in Serbia's economic outlook and investment environment. In October 2024, the country gained its first-ever investment rating from Standard and Poors. By November, FDI inflows had reached €4.467bn, nearly matching the total for the previous year.
Serbia’s strong performance in the first half of the year led the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission to revise their 2024 growth forecasts upward to 3.9%.
Looking to 2025, Serbia's growth is forecast to remain strong, with the NBS projecting expansion between 4% and 5%, with a central estimate of 4.5%. The IMF forecasts a slightly lower growth rate of 4.1%, while the EC projects 4.2%. Key drivers of growth will include robust government spending related to Expo 2027, resilient domestic demand and solid performances in manufacturing, construction and services.
Serbia faces potential risks to the upside, including fluctuating energy and food prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. An economic slowdown among Serbia’s key EU trading partners could also exert pressure on fiscal and external accounts.
Nevertheless, Serbia is well-positioned to navigate external shocks. Strong external buffers, diversified FDI inflows and prudent fiscal and monetary policies underpinned by IMF arrangements provide resilience. These factors should enable Serbia to mitigate Eurozone weaknesses and maintain its economic growth trajectory, ensuring continued expansion in 2025.
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