Page 47 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.3 6.8 6.5 6.4 7.7 3.8 -1.1
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 0.232 0.294 0.329 0.384 0.507 0.646 0.757
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 110.8 101.9 91.8 90.1 101.6 97.2 90.9 Source: statistics office, IMF, World Bank, Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
2.11.1 GDP growth
The European Commission expects Slovenia’s economic growth to accelerate to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, from estimated 1.4% in 2024, supported by robust private consumption, which is projected to benefit from rising employment and real wage growth. While investment is expected to recover, its pace may be tempered by persistent challenges in the construction sector.
Investment activity is expected to gain momentum over the forecast period, bolstered by the implementation of Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF)-financed measures and cohesion policy projects. Investment in machinery and equipment is also forecast to increase, fuelled by improving financial conditions and stronger demand for exports.
Meanwhile, imports are anticipated to rise, reflecting higher levels of consumption and investment. As a result, the contribution of net exports to growth is forecast to remain neutral in 2025 and turn negative in 2026.
The OECD said that the economic growth in Slovenia is expected to accelerate to 2.6% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by strengthening domestic and external demand. Private consumption will be bolstered by a tight labour market and steady real wage growth as inflationary pressures ease.
Investment is projected to recover gradually, supported by improved external demand, post-flood reconstruction efforts, and the inflow of EU funds. The labour market is anticipated to remain tight, with historically low unemployment levels continuing to drive strong wage growth.
However, wage pressures are likely to slow the pace of disinflation, keeping inflation above 2% in both 2025 and 2026. Potential risks include weaker-than-expected demand from trading partners and excessive wage growth, which could erode competitiveness. Labour shortages may also hinder post-flood reconstruction efforts, dampening investment activity.
On a positive note, increased immigration could help alleviate labour shortages, providing some relief to the constrained workforce and supporting economic recovery.
47 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com