Page 67 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

4.8 Inflation & Monetary Policy – North Macedonia
North Macedonia is on track to see a significant decline in inflation. Following a high of 9.4% in 2023, inflation is projected to drop to 3.5% in 2024, with a continued downward trend over the coming years.
The central bank expects inflation to stabilise further, averaging 2.5% in 2025, eventually returning to the historical average of 2%. However, the central bank remains vigilant regarding inflation risks, particularly those related to global commodity prices and domestic policies affecting aggregate demand.
According to the World Bank, headline inflation is forecast to stay above or near 3% in 2024-2025 before gradually declining to a long-term average of 2%.
According to the European Commission, inflation is projected to reach 3.4% in 2024 before easing to 2.2% in 2025.
Annual consumer price inflation has steadily declined from its peak of 19.8% in October 2022 to an average of 3.3% during the first nine months of 2024. However, core inflation, excluding energy and food, remains persistently high. Signs of moderation are emerging in energy-driven sectors like transport. Consequently, inflation is projected to average close to 2% in 2025, the European Commission said.
In the first eleven months of 2024, inflation stood at 3.4%. In November, the annual inflation accelerated again by 0.8 of a percentage point (pp) from the previous month to 4.3%. Hotel and restaurant prices saw the biggest annual price increase, at 11.4%, followed by alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.8%). Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by an annual 5.7% in November, accelerating from a 3.3% increase in the previous month.
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