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Despite de-ratifying the CTBT, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia has no intention of conducting nuclear tests. Leonid Slutsky, the head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, reiterated this; Russia “will continue to fulfill all its obligations under the treaty, as well as observe a moratorium on nuclear tests,” he said. He called Russia’s de-ratification a “mirror response” to US behaviour and said that Russia is only protecting its national interests.
Although Russia may not be rushing to conduct nuclear tests, de-ratification of the CTBT is part of a concerning trend. In February of this year, Russia withdrew from New START, a treaty with the US limiting the number of nuclear warheads each country could deploy, and, in June, Putin confirmed that Russia has sent tactical nuclear arms to Belarus. While this latest move may not signal a new arms race, experts warn that it does weaken the global consensus against nuclear testing. Robert Floyd, Executive Secretary of the CTBT Organization, agreed. “I urge leaders in Russia to consider a different path, one which reinforces global commitment to ending nuclear testing,” he tweeted.
2.7 Transition to green energy “inevitable” says IEA
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its annual World Energy Outlook report for 2023, which presents a more stringent outlook for fossil energy resources.
IEA's Executive Director, Fatih Birol, emphasized that the global transition to clean energy is inevitable, stating, "It’s no longer a question of ‘if,’ but a question of ‘how soon’ - and the sooner, the better for everyone."
The report predicts that peak demand for fossil fuels will occur by the end of this decade, not only for gas and coal but also for oil, marking a shift from last year's report, which estimated a peak for oil in the mid-2030s. Following this peak, there will be a plateau period lasting approximately 20 years, characterized by reduced energy consumption in developed countries and increased consumption in developing nations. Consequently, investments in fossil fuel exploration should be curtailed, and production investments should not be increased.
The IEA underscores that "natural" reductions in emissions will not be sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the target set by the Paris Agreement. Achieving this goal will require reducing emissions from coal, oil, and gas to nearly zero.
By 2030, the global electric vehicle fleet is expected to grow tenfold, and the share of renewable energy in global energy generation will increase from the current 30% to 50%. Sales of heat pumps are projected to surpass those of gas boilers, and investments in wind farms will outpace investments in coal and gas thermal power plants.
The future trajectory towards renewable energy will significantly depend on China, which is still increasing its consumption of both oil and coal. However,
23 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com