Page 24 - RusRPTNov23

once China reaches its peak demand for steel and cement, a return to previous energy consumption patterns is unlikely.
Under the IEA's moderately conservative scenario, Russia's share in global gas trade is anticipated to decline to 15% by 2030 from its 2021 level of 30%. The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market will be dominated by Qatar and the United States.
It's worth noting that the IEA's forecasts directly contradict those of OPEC, which predicts oil demand growth until 2045. Fatih Birol suggests that OPEC should engage with various industries, such as the auto industry, heat pump manufacturers, renewable energy, and investors, to understand their perspectives on the future of energy.
While the IEA's forecasts are influential, it has made mistakes in the past, such as underestimating the rapid development of renewable energy sources, particularly solid-state solar, and inaccurately predicting the peak in coal consumption in China in 2016.
2.8 Russian business and consumer confidence
24 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com