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the National Wealth Fund next year. A favourable condition of the external markets would also allow the government to replenish the National Wealth Fund in 2023 although some energy revenue of the budget will be spent to replace internal borrowing this year. “The amount (of contribution) will exceed 1 trillion rubles, our estimates show that it would amount to about 1.2 trillion rubles. That is why this year the National Wealth Fund will grow thanks to the favourable circumstances in spite of the fact that we will use a part of the oil and gas revenue to replace the sources of borrowing,” he said.
Russia’s budget expenses for servicing the country's public debt and preferential credit programs could amount to 200bn rubles ($2.05bn) due to key rate hike, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev said on Monday. "There is (the Ministry of Finance's estimate of the costs associated with the rate increase - TASS). There is more than 200bn [rubles] per percentage point," he said, when asked if the Ministry of Finance has an estimate of how much budget expenditures rise if the key rate rises by one percentage point. In response to the question of whether the estimate was lower last year, Kolychev stated that it was most likely not lower a year ago. Earlier, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 100 basis points to 13% per annum and said it would consider the feasibility of its further increase at upcoming meetings.
6.2 Debt
Russia’s sovereign debt should rise to 21.2% of GDP in 2023 from 18.9% in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on October 11. In 2024, the debt should grow to 21.8% of GDP, and then start falling gradually to 18.2% in 2028.
The world’s combined state debt should grow by 1% of the combined GDP per year to 100% of GDP until the end of the current decade, the IMF said.
According to Russia’s Audit Chamber, Russia’s debt amounted to 14.9% of GDP in 2022. The Finance Ministry expects it to rise to 17.6% in 2023, while the draft federal budget puts debt at 18.1% in 2024, 18.8% in 2025, and 19.8% in 2026.
Russia’s external debt as of October 1, 2023, reached $329.5bn, which is 14.1% (or $54.1bn) lower than the figure at the beginning of 2023, the Bank of Russia said on Thursday.
"The significant decrease in government debt is due to a decline in the dollar equivalent of liabilities as the national currency weakens against the US dollar, as well as a decline in the volume of Russian sovereign securities held by non-residents, including as a result of their planned repayment," the regulator said.
80 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com