Page 82 - RusRPTNov23

7.0 FX
RUSSIA -FX
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
Oct 23
Currency (units per EUR) (eop)
90.6
88.8
86.4
88.6
90.5
56.2
56.5
78.9
79.2
90.4
99.0
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
75.5
73.8
73.4
74.2
81.8
53.1
58.9
74.0
73.6
83.5
93.5
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
89.6
89.4
86.4
88.5
99.4
73.0
87.0
64.3
78.5
88.5
103.5
Currency (units per USD) (average)
74.3
74.2
73.0
73.8
88.9
68.4
77.0
63.0
73.3
81.2
98.0
source: CBR
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on October 20 highlighted the risks of any strengthening of the ruble to the budget, giving a rule of thumb: "A change in the exchange rate by one ruble will lead to an increase or a decrease in budget revenues (of) around RUB100bn ($1bn)."
Vladimir Putin by decree again obliged exporters to sell foreign exchange earnings to stabilise the exchange rate on October 12. The document itself has not yet been published, and the volume and timing of the sale have yet to be determined by the government. Nevertheless, the ruble strengthened on this news to 96.8 per dollar and 102.9 per euro. analysts predict the dollar at 90 or lower in the near future, but find it difficult to assess the long-term effects of the measure proposed by the authorities.
The Russian government plans to institutionalise and codify currency controls, potentially introducing a systemic currency controls procedure for trade settlements, Kommersant daily reports citing the address of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at the international export forum "Made in Russia-2023". As followed by bne IntelliNews, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree reintroducing obligatory foreign currency revenue sales by some Russian exporters for the duration of six months, according to a government statement, as the Kremlin strives to shore up the ruble's value ahead of presidential elections next year. Now, reportedly, both the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and the government will devise a permanent currency control system that will oblige a number of exporting companies to report on their foreign currency assets and liabilities abroad. A state infrastructure for managing foreign trade settlements and repaying foreign currency trading debt
82 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com