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and transactions is also considered. Specific details of the currency controls plans are not yet available.
Weak ruble is seen as the constraint to industrial growth due to increasing prices of imported equipment by 35%, executives said in an October survey by the Gaidar Institute cited by RBC business portal. The share of respondents pointing to weak ruble is the highest since January 2016. To compare, in October 2022, only 6% of respondents considered the weak RUB as a limitation. The previous record value (36% of responses) was recorded in early 2016, when the dollar exchange rate for the first time exceeded RUB75 per US dollar. Previous reports already suggested that Russian industrial majors need stronger ruble to help them cut costs and boost investment. Since the beginning of 4Q23, the ruble exchange rate has been ranked fourth among the problems for industrial growth most often cited by companies.
The Economic Development Ministry still expects the Russian ruble to stabilise at around RUB90–92 per dollar in 2024–2026, Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on October 16 during a session of the budget and tax committee of the parliament’s lower chamber State Duma. “Taking into account the trade surplus growth this year and taking into account the approved measures, we expect a further stabilisation of the ruble’s rate in 2024–2026. Given the changes in the structure of payments and capital outflow, we see balance at around 90–92 rubles per US dollar,” he said, as cited by Prime.
The Russian national currency will gradually strengthen to 94.3 rubles per dollar by the end of 2023 mainly due to recovery of import dynamics, according to the focal points of the budget, tax and customs-tariff policy for 2024 and the planned period of 2025 and 2026 published on the website of the Finance Ministry.
Russia and Kyrgyzstan are actively switching to national currencies in mutual trade - the ruble share now accounts for 83% of commercial transactions, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 13. Putin stated that bilateral trade turnover increased by 37% last year and reached record levels. He also stated that the volume of mutual trade increased by nearly 18% in the first half of this year.
At the start of October the ruble once again approached the RUB100 to the dollar mark it hit in August.
analysts identify several reasons for the new weakening of the Russian currency. Firstly, this is the end of the tax period in which exporters usually sell foreign exchange earnings.
Secondly, a local decline in the oil market. On October 3 in Moscow, Brent was
83 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com