Page 84 - RusRPTNov23

trading at around $91.2 per barrel, falling to a three-week low amid a stronger dollar, high interest rates and traders' concerns about fuel demand.
Thirdly, the factors of the trade balance and capital outflow, which have been putting pressure on the ruble all this year and under which the dollar is unlikely to be cheaper than 93–95, have not gone away.
In addition, smaller factors also put pressure on the ruble. For example, there are echoes of last week’s discussions of the “Chinese membrane” (which actually means a refusal to convert the ruble). The issue is not so much the “membrane” as the delay in discussing measures to control the foreign exchange market.
The Ministry of Economic Development, on the basis of whose forecast the budget for the next three years is drawn up, expects that the average dollar exchange rate in 2024 will be 90.1 rubles, in 2025 - 91.1 rubles, and in 2026 - 92.3 rubles.
Daily purchases of foreign currency and gold under the fiscal rule will equal 18.12bn rubles ($182mn) from October 6 to November 7, the ministry said.
"The amount of funds allocated for purchases of foreign currency and gold totals 398.72bn rubles. Transactions will be carried out from October 6, 2023 to November 7, 2023, respectively, with daily purchases of foreign currency and gold equaling 18.12bn rubles," the ministry said.
The Russian Finance Ministry resumed FX sell operations in the domestic FX market under the new fiscal rule mechanism on January 13, 2023. Purchase and sales transactions of foreign currency are carried out by the Bank of Russia on the domestic market in the currency section of Moscow Exchange in the ‘Chinese yuan-ruble’ instrument.
The share of Russian Ruble and Chinese Yuan settlements in Russia’s total foreign trade has surged to almost 70% as Moscow rapidly shifts away from Western currencies, Economic Development Minister Maksim Reshetnikov said on October 20 with the de-dollarization of Russian trade with China now almost complete, the minister told reporters on the sidelines of the Russia-China Energy Business Forum in Beijing.
Recent data from the Russian Economic Development Ministry shows that the Yuan overtook the US dollar in Russia’s import settlements with China in 2022. The RMB Yuan has since been used in Russian trade with Mongolia, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Japan, Tajikistan, and Singapore.
84 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com