Page 15 - Small Stans Outlook 2024

economy ministry figures released on November 13.
Exports rose by 49.6% y/y, while imports moved up 21.6% y/y.
3.2 External trade - Tajikistan
In an end-of-year address to Parliament, President Rahmon lamented a 19% y/y decline in Tajikistan’s exports of industrial products in 2023 to TJS18.5bn ($1.69bn).
December’s official statistics showing the country’s 11M23 trade volume with fellow countries of Central Asia amounted to $1.54bn, down 17% y/y. Trade turnover with Kazakhstan decreased by 20%, with Uzbekistan by 10.3%, with Turkmenistan by 13.5% and with Kyrgyzstan by 21.7%.
In the 11 months Tajikistan’s main Central Asia trading partner remained Kazakhstan, with a volume exceeding $1bn. The figure for second-placed Uzbekistan was around $450mn.
As with all the countries of the region, entities in Tajikistan are certainly playing a role in helping Russia obtain goods that the West is attempting to deny Moscow through Ukraine War-related sanctions, though its neighbour Kyrgyzstan appears to be much more prominent in this respect. The US hit Tajikistan-based Chamaiyati Doroi Masauliyati Makhdudi Kafolati Komil with sanctions in December for allegedly sending foreign-made aviation parts to Russia via the UAE.
3.3 External trade - Turkmenistan
A severe correction in the raw cotton wholesale price since the middle of 2022 has
hit cotton growers across Central Asia, including Turkmenistan.
The correction followed a spike registered as the global economy eased out of the coronavirus lockdown, with international prices for raw cotton more than doubling to reach around $1.50 per pound. However, the average price sank to less than $0.80 per pound (0.45 kilograms) in November.
Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s top cotton producer, but neighbouring Turkmenistan is also one of the top-10 cotton producers globally. The Turkmen cotton industry, however, annually faces condemnation for using forced labour for harvesting.
The cotton downturn has even caused some industry analysts to consider whether cotton might be signalling a global recession.
"The thing is, in many countries of the world there have been droughts and practically no cotton was grown; but in spite of this, demand for cotton is still low – very low," Zafar Otazhanov, a farmer in Kyrgyzstan's southern Osh Province, told RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service.
In a positive development, Turkmenistan’s FX earnings potential has been boosted by analysis that shows the country has the opportunity to double its greenhouse tomato production in 2023/2024.
Greenhouse fruit and vegetable growers in the country, already a global leader in tomato exports, enjoy very low gas prices given the country’s abundant gas reserves, as well as a relatively warm winter and inexpensive labour. In 2022,
15 Small Stans 2023 www.intellinews.com